Articles

Variation in the Influence of Climate Parameters on Dengue Fever

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Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is the highest viral infection due to its fatality in humans. Initially, dengue only occurred in the tropics and has spread to sub-tropical areas. This disease is transmitted through the bite of vector mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus, so the presence of these vectors is important in the spread of dengue disease. The existence of this vector is influenced by environmental conditions. Creating a suitable environment for vector mosquitoes is determined by climatic factors, especially rainfall, temperature, and humidity. Various studies have shown that these climatic factors’ influence can vary from region to region. This article discusses the variations in the influence of these climatic factors on the incidence of DHF to enrich knowledge about the epidemiology of dengue infection. This study concludes that temperature and rainfall could have a positive or negative effect on the incidence of DHF, while humidity consistently had a positive effect on the incidence of DHF. The climate factor does not stand alone and does not directly affect the process of DHF transmission. The influence appeared through the vector’s life and the virus’s multiplication in the vector’s body.

Characteristics of Rainfall Influence Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Phenomena Based on Machine Learning in Deli Serdang Region

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Rainfall in the Deli Serdang region is influenced by global climate phenomena. This study aims to determine the characteristics of rainfall based on machine learning due to the simultaneous occurrence of IOD and MJO in the Deli Serdang region. This study uses a descriptive method and Pearson correlation analysis using rainfall, IOD, and MJO data. The results of the study with machine learning showed that the accuracy value of the SVM model was 56.16% and when the MJO was strong and the IOD was positive in January – December 2024 in the Tuntungan region, the highest was 258 mm and the lowest was Bandar Khalipa 167 mm. Strong MJO and Negative IOD were found in December 2022, the highest area was Sibiru-biru 264 mm and the lowest was 146.16 mm. Weak MJO and Positive IOD in the low-lying Bandar Khalipa region were 140 mm. Dry months can be predicted using several indicators, including the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). However, dry months are more often predicted using the IOD indicator. IOD has a significant influence on rainfall in Indonesia, especially in eastern Indonesia. When IOD is in a positive phase, rainfall in Indonesia tends to decrease, increasing the possibility of a dry month. MJO has a greater influence on rainfall on a shorter time scale, such as weekly or monthly. MJO can affect rainfall in Indonesia, but its influence is not as great as IOD in predicting dry months.