Articles

Formation of the Topography and Developmental Dynamics of the Kitab-Shahrisabz Oasis

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This study examines the formation of the historical topography and the developmental dynamics of the Kitab-Shahrisabz Oasis in southern Central Asia from antiquity to the early twentieth century. The aim is to reconstruct the principal stages of urban development of Kitab and Shahrisabz and to clarify the historical relationship between these two urban centers and the ancient city of Kesh. The study is based on archaeological, topographical, architectural, historical, and ethnographic evidence obtained through field investigations and the analysis of published and archival sources. Particular attention is given to the results of the Kesh Archaeological and Topographical Expedition (KATE), whose investigations in the 1960s provided important evidence for the reconstruction of the ancient and medieval urban landscape.

The archaeological evidence indicates that the earliest urban development within modern Kitab dates to the third-second centuries BCE, while the ancient settlement reached its peak during the Kushan-Kangju period. The remains of defensive walls, the citadel at Qalandar-tepa, cultural deposits, ceramics, coins, and architectural materials demonstrate the long-term continuity and transformation of the settlement. In contrast, archaeological evidence from Shahrisabz indicates predominantly rural occupation during the Early Medieval period, with intensive urban development beginning in the ninth–twelfth centuries. The study therefore supports the hypothesis that ancient Kesh was located on the site of modern Kitab rather than Shahrisabz. At the same time, the subsequent transfer of the political and economic center to Shahrisabz contributed to its transformation into a major urban, cultural, and architectural center under the Timurids.

Explainable AI for Foreign Direct Investment Analysis: Evidence from Central Asia

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Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important factor in the economic development of Central Asian countries, where investment flows have traditionally been concentrated in resource-based sectors. In the context of a growing focus on diversification, the need to analyze and study the determinants of FDI is increasing.

This study examines the determinants of FDI inflows in Central Asian countries using machine learning methods (CatBoost) and explainable artificial intelligence (SHAP), and compares the results with a classical econometric approach based on a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) model. Given the limited availability of data, a transfer learning approach is applied: the model is first trained on a group of countries structurally similar to Central Asia and then fine-tuned on the regional sample.

The results show that key macroeconomic factors such as Trade (% of GDP), Current account balance (% of GDP), and several other macroeconomic variables remain significant across both methodologies. At the same time, ML identifies additional regional patterns, such as a higher importance for FDI of determinants including Adjusted savings: carbon dioxide damage (% of GNI), Urban population (% of total population), and Access to electricity (% of population), among others.

The findings indicate that XAI provides interpretable results that are consistent with classical methods and additionally allows for capturing nonlinearities and regional heterogeneity. The study extends the application of ML and XAI in data-constrained Central Asian settings and demonstrates the value of combining econometric and machine learning approaches in the analysis of FDI determinants.

Establishment of Foreign Policy of Uzbekistan and its Priorities

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The article analyzes the process of formation of the foreign policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the main factors contributing to the formation of the foreign policy of the new state, taking into account the situation in Central Asia. The study also highlights the principles and priorities of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy activities and topical issues of developing international cooperation in order to preserve and strengthen regional stability.