Articles

System Dynamics-Based Policy Scenario Evaluation for Sustainable Municipal Solid Waste Management in Ambon City, Indonesia

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Unmanaged waste and heavy reliance on landfill disposal highlight the urgent need for sustainable municipal solid waste management planning in Ambon City. This study developed a system dynamics model to evaluate policy scenarios for increasing managed waste and reducing landfilled waste. Using Powersim Studio 10, the model projected waste generation and waste management performance from 2026 to 2035 to evaluate the achievement of the 100% managed waste target by 2029 and the post-target effects of policy interventions on system performance. The model was tested through structure verification and behavior reproduction testing. The simulation results indicate that the business-as-usual scenario fails to meet the 2029 target due to limited upstream reduce, reuse, and recycle capacity and continued reliance on the conventional collect–transport–dispose approach. In contrast, the integrated policy scenario provides the most effective policy direction. Achieving a 30% source- and community-based reduce, reuse, and recycle (3R) target requires management capacity to increase by 38.43% annually. This upstream intervention reduces downstream handling burdens by lowering the required annual increase in collection and transportation capacity from 8.94% to 5.50%. Furthermore, developing an integrated waste processing facility (abbreviated in Indonesian as TPST) before landfill disposal, with a capacity of 74 tons/day, substantially reduces landfilled waste. The integrated scenario achieves the 100% managed waste target earlier, in 2028, maintains this level through 2034, and produces the lowest landfilled waste among all scenarios through 2035. The proposed dynamic model provides a decision-support framework for local government in formulating more effective and sustainable municipal solid waste management strategies.

A System Dynamics Model for Rooftop Solar PV System Development in Indonesia

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Despite of Indonesia’s vast solar energy potential according to the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia’s total installed capacity of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) is very far from Indonesia’s target of 3.6 GW in 2025. Indonesia once applied net metering scheme for rooftop solar PV policy and was expected to be able to boost rooftop solar PV growth. A system dynamics approach is used in the research to develop an assessment model to evaluate the policies’ impact on residential rooftop solar PV system growth. A Causal Loop Diagram was established then transformed into Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) using software Vensim PLE 10.1.3, which was used to simulate several policies’ scenarios related to residential rooftop solar PV adoption and CO2 emissions reduction. Ten scenarios were simulated in this study involving three groups of intervention: initial net metering tariff, reduction on initial solar PV cost, upper limit of ROI, and combination of initial net metering tariff and initial solar PV cost reduction. The simulations revealed that combination of increasing net metering tariff to 80% & initial cost reduction 30% has the highest potential solar PV installations, the highest CO2 emissions reduction, and the lowest accumulation cost of net metering in 2030. This study can be used as reference by the policy makers in Indonesia to formulate the optimum policy to boost rooftop solar PV growth as the simulations shows that residential rooftop solar PV with the right intervention can meet the government’s target of rooftop solar PV in 2030.