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Mevronic Neural Networks for Explicit Reliability Regime Control. A Semantically Anchored Architecture with Analytical Properties and an Evaluation Protocol

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Autonomous systems face a difficult problem when the information they rely on becomes unreliable: they must decide not only what to predict, but also how much confidence to place in those predictions. This paper introduces Mevronic Neural Networks (MNNs), a design approach that connects a neural representation network with a persistent state describing its operating reliability. Rather than proposing a new computational architecture, the focus is on making the relationship between incoming evidence, stored information, network behavior, and operational decisions more explicit. The proposed model uses three main state variables representing estimated prediction correctness, accumulated anomaly evidence, and sensor quality. These variables influence the system’s alertness and determine how much adaptation is allowed. Their meanings are defined in advance to make the mechanism easier to examine, although the estimates used to update them may still contain errors. The paper explains how the system collects evidence, maintains its internal state, and modifies network features within specified limits. Then it switches to alternative responses when conditions require it. The mathematical results confirm that the state variables stay within their defined boundaries and show how earlier observations influence subsequent updates. They also provide an exact expression for the time needed to reach a given threshold when the incoming evidence remains constant. A numerical example helps illustrate a practical compromise: smoothing reduces rapid fluctuations in the system’s response, but it can also delay reactions to changes in the environment. These results describe the behavior of the regulatory component and do not, by themselves, demonstrate that the complete system is safer or more accurate. To examine whether the proposed approach is useful in practice, the paper presents an experimental plan based on synthetic multisensor tracking. The plan includes comparisons with models given equivalent information, separate datasets for training and testing, and measures that assess both prediction quality and operational behavior. The discussion also considers reference with established techniques, such as recurrent gating, feature-wise modulation, hypernetworks, neuromodulated recurrence, differentiable plasticity, and runtime assurance. Whether MNNs provide sufficient practical benefits to justify their additional complexity remains an open question that requires experiments with trained models and validation in real-world settings.

Residual-Regime Markov Modelling for Predictive Control in Cyber-Physical Systems

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Cyber-physical systems operate through a continuous interaction between physical processes, computational intelligence, communication networks and control mechanisms. Their behaviour is rarely fully deterministic: sensor noise, delayed communication, nonlinear dynamics, regime changes and early-stage failures create uncertainty that cannot be adequately represented by a single forecasting or control method. This paper proposes an original Residual-Regime Markov Forecast–Control Framework for cyber-physical systems. The framework brings together three modelling layers that play different roles. The ARIMA component handles the basic linear time‑series structure and keeps the model interpretable. On top of that, a machine‑learning layer works on the residuals to capture the nonlinear behaviour that ARIMA cannot. The final layer uses a Markov‑style state representation, turning the forecast errors, system signals and operating conditions into probabilistic regimes that describe how the system is likely to evolve. Unlike classical hybrid forecasting models that stop at prediction, the proposed approach links prediction to decision-making by using Markov transition probabilities, hidden-state belief updates and risk-aware policy selection. The main idea is that forecast errors are not treated only as modelling imperfections; instead, they are interpreted as early indicators of changing system regimes. A simulation-oriented evaluation design is presented for an industrial cyber-physical process with normal operation, peak load and degradation conditions. The proposed framework is expected to improve predictive maintenance, anomaly anticipation and control-policy selection by connecting statistical forecasting, data-driven correction and probabilistic decision logic in a single pipeline. The contribution of the paper lies in transforming hybrid forecasting into a regime-aware forecast–control architecture suitable for intelligent CPS monitoring and adaptive technical management.