Scenario Planning for Indonesia’s Alcoholic Beverage Industry in 2026: A Study Case from Company DORIA

Indonesia has a small market for the alcoholic beverage industry due to its majority Muslim population. However, some data projected that the alcoholic beverage consumption level in the country will continue to grow until 2026, which opens the opportunity for the market to grow. DORIA is a multinational company dominating the global alcoholic beverage market. This MNC is planning to expand its business to Indonesia to capture the opportunity by proposing to become a local alcoholic beverage producer. However, due to Indonesia’s political and social conditions, DORIA faces several challenges in pursuing legal status as a local alcoholic beverage producer. There are only a few pieces of literature about the Indonesian alcoholic beverage industry that can be found. Thus, this research aims to give references for alcoholic beverage companies to help them develop their business strategies based on plausible scenarios of Indonesia’s domestic condition, including political and social situations, in the next three years using the scenario planning framework. Data used in this research is collected through interviews and literature study that will be analyzed using content analysis and qualitative coding analysis methods. By looking at the plausible scenarios, a set of business strategies, that more focus on the marketing strategy, can be recommended.