Articles

Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybrid Heuristic Model and Fuzzy C-Means on Type 2 Fuzzy Time Series

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Forecasting world crude oil prices needs to be done because it has an essential role in Indonesia’s economy, so an accurate and efficient forecasting approach is needed. This research combines heuristic and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) models on Type 2 Fuzzy Time Series (T2FTS) to forecast crude oil prices. T2FTS, an extension of Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) by adding observations, is used to enrich the fuzzy relationship of the Type 1 model and can improve forecasting performance. FCM is used to determine unequal interval lengths and heuristic models to optimize fuzzy relations by identifying crude oil price movements using up and down trends. The data used in this study is the price of Brent crude oil as one of the benchmarks for world crude oil prices from 1 January 2023 – 31 May 2024. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) measures accuracy in assessing forecasting results. The results showed that the combination of heuristic and FCM models in T2FTS gave accurate results, as evidenced by the MAPE value obtained, which was 1.50%, so it fell into the excellent category.

Calculation of Some Crude Oil Flow Parameters in A Cylindrical Tube and Their Modelization in Small and Great Variable Radius

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In this work, we establish the kinematic of flowing of crude oil inside a cylindrical tube which is rare in the literature. From velocity expression, we find kinematic. Pressure, temperature and heat distribution of crude oil flowing are also find from equations in the literature. Silmilation of these expressions shows that Kinematic of crude oil is similar to a flow of a fluide with a small viscosity what is true in the reality. Velocity of crude oil is not similar in any points during the flowing but increasing and decreasing according to the position point and seams like to be more fast in the border than in the center with a small radius and more fast in the center than in the border with a great radius. Temperature of the crude oil is not similar in any points during the flowing. It is more elevated in the the border than in the center. Pressure in small radius is more important in the center than in the border contrarily in great radius. results are more conformable in the reality in small than in great radius. Results of the heat is more conformable in the reality in small than in great radius.