Effects of Deforestation and Anthropogenic Aspects on Streamflow in the Mau Forest Catchments in Kenya: Hydrological Modelling of Surface Water Yields from Sondu River Basin

Climatic factors determine the amount and distribution of atmospheric water received at the land surface while the land cover conditions determine the partitioning of this water into different hydrological components and ultimately the catchment surface water yields. This study assessed the effects of deforestation of a tropical catchment on surface water yields to address fluctuating flows of the rivers emanating from Mau Forest, the largest water tower in Kenya. Sondu basin traverses Southwest Mau Forest covering an area of 3500 km². The main channel in the basin flows in a southwest direction into Lake Victoria in an altitudinal range of 2900 to 1130 m a.s.l over a length of 173 km. Different deforestation scenarios over the basin were integrated with climate data to form inputs to a hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Using model outputs, the effects of deforestation on annual and seasonal surface water yields, represented by changes in streamflow volumes under different deforestation scenarios, were evaluated. Deforestation scenarios were derived from a supervised classification scheme of time series of LANDSAT images (1970-2020) to show deforestation trends. Effects of deforestation on the catchment water-yielding capacity were estimated as the ratio of the difference between simulated yields under different deforestation scenarios and those simulated under the pre-deforestation scenario of the 1970s decade. Results show that forest cover declined by 21% and a corresponding growth in land under agriculture by 26% in the period 1970-2020.  The decline in forest coverage resulted in an increase in the annual surface water yields of about 23% (from 152 to 187 MCM/year) throughout the period of study. This implies that there is less recharge of groundwater due to decreased infiltration and subsequent storage leading to lower flows during the dry seasons and increased flood frequencies in the basin during the wet seasons. The study has therefore, demonstrated that deforestation has reduced the stability of Mau Forest as a water tower and conservation of the forest will enhance its water-holding capacity thereby ensuring a stable water supply to rivers emanating from it as a way of combating floods and low flows in the basin. The resultant impacts on environment and society are displacements from floods and destruction of properties.