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Scenario Planning for Strategic Decision-Making in Captive Power Plant: A Case Study of EBC Company Facing Global Net Zero Emission Challenges Beyond 2031

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Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, increased world surface temperatures by 1.1 °C between 2011 and 2020 compared to the 1850–1900 period. In order to limit global temperature rise, and achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century, as outlined in the Paris Agreement—which Indonesia signed in 2016—a substantial decrease in coal usage is imperative. This poses uncertainties for coal-dependent companies like Eastern Borneo Coal (EBC) in Indonesia. This study investigates the business environment uncertainties faced by EBC, particularly regarding its captive coal power plants, and assesses the potential risks associated with various future scenarios using scenario planning method. Findings suggest EBC must prioritize equipment upgrades and compliance measures in stricter regulatory environments, enhance operational efficiency and diversify investments in favourable conditions, implement cost reduction strategies and focus on high-quality coal production in challenging markets, and maintain flexibility and explore export opportunities under looser regulations. Emphasizing the importance of monitoring key indicators, engaging with stakeholders, and investing in sustainable technologies, the study provides strategic insights to help EBC navigate future uncertainties and maintain competitiveness, positioning it as a leader in sustainable energy practices beyond 2031.

Scenario Planning for Indonesia’s Alcoholic Beverage Industry in 2026: A Study Case from Company DORIA

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Indonesia has a small market for the alcoholic beverage industry due to its majority Muslim population. However, some data projected that the alcoholic beverage consumption level in the country will continue to grow until 2026, which opens the opportunity for the market to grow. DORIA is a multinational company dominating the global alcoholic beverage market. This MNC is planning to expand its business to Indonesia to capture the opportunity by proposing to become a local alcoholic beverage producer. However, due to Indonesia’s political and social conditions, DORIA faces several challenges in pursuing legal status as a local alcoholic beverage producer. There are only a few pieces of literature about the Indonesian alcoholic beverage industry that can be found. Thus, this research aims to give references for alcoholic beverage companies to help them develop their business strategies based on plausible scenarios of Indonesia’s domestic condition, including political and social situations, in the next three years using the scenario planning framework. Data used in this research is collected through interviews and literature study that will be analyzed using content analysis and qualitative coding analysis methods. By looking at the plausible scenarios, a set of business strategies, that more focus on the marketing strategy, can be recommended.

Revitalizing PT. Sindo Energy (SE): A Forward-Thinking Proposed Scenario Planning to Navigate Coal-Regulatory Changes and Ensure Sustainability

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Coal is a valuable natural resource that belongs to the Indonesian state and serves as a crucial raw material for fulfilling the country’s primary energy requirements. Starting from 2022, the Government has made a formal declaration to attain Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by the year 2060. Presidential Decree no. 112 of 2022 has been issued to expedite the development of renewable energy for electricity supply. One of the consequences of this decree is the discontinuation of coal-based power plants, reflecting the government’s dedication to transitioning to alternative energy sources in the future. Sindo Energy (SE) is a mining contractor services company that operates under the Indonesia Mining Alliances (IMA). It specializes in the coal industry and has a significant market share, contributing to a Gross Profit Margin of 93.43%. Naturally, projects that collaborate with SE are firms that own coal and so have the power to influence the overall business operations. This study aims to offer a comprehensive and enduring perspective on the potential future occurrences of scenario planning. The fundamental basis for creating the four scenarios, namely Believing Spirit (BS), Pioneer of Changes (PC), Truly Fighter (TF), and Chameleon Specialist (CS), involves identifying the major focal issues, driving reasons, and sources of uncertainty. This research outlines four scenarios that depict the projected industrial conditions in 2040. Each scenario presents different ramifications and possibilities, as outlined in the study. This research also generates pre-emptive indicators for SE business, which will subsequently prove valuable for corporations in formulating strategic measures that the company can adopt to confront potential situations in the face of future uncertainty, via implementation plans spanning a minimum of 15 years, in the upcoming year.

Scenario Planning Development in Facing Future Challenge for Power Rental Industry (Case Study: SM Company)

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The diesel power rental industry is currently in an energy transition period. Policy changes in reducing the use of non-renewable fuels are factors that can reduce customer demand. Several policies, such as the Paris agreement, followed by a general plan for electricity supply, then a general plan for national energy that focuses on increasing the use of renewable energy encourages the shift from fossil fuels to renewable sources. These factors will affect the electricity rental industry which still uses fossil fuels.

Scenario planning is chosen to provide possible scenarios that may occur in the future by carrying out an analysis of implications & options. This scenario can provide an initial danger signal to be used as an indicator of movement in an industry which will help companies to act and choose the best strategy going forward. Scenario planning is used as a tool for strategic thinking that can be integrated into corporate strategic planning.

The semi-structural interview qualitative method was used to collect both primary and secondary data. Supporting analysis of both external factors such as Pestle & Porters Generic Strategies as well as internal resource-competencies was carried out to determine what factors affect uncertainty in the industry, in overcoming future uncertainties scenario planning carried out in this study. The strategic recommendations that were presented have the potential to assist in the future alignment of the company’s strategy.

The Road towards a Resilient Base Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia: A Transformative Scenario Planning Approach

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Petrochemical industry is a strategic industry for a nation because it has a big impact on society at large. Petrochemical derivative products are an inseparable part of our modern life. With the development of technology, humans can synthesize innumerable combinations of petrochemical molecular structures to obtain materials with certain properties suitable for the final products to be made, from clothing, packaging, pharmaceutical, households, etc. All these products are mostly produced based on six building blocks of petrochemical, which are ethylene, propylene, butylene, benzene, toluene, and xylene. They, collectively, are called base petrochemical. However, the chemical sector and its derivatives contributed to the Indonesian Current Account Deficit. In 2019, The Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics reported that imports of chemicals and goods derived from chemicals reached USD 21.51 billion. Meanwhile, the export activity of this sector was only USD 12.65 billion. Thus, The Government of Indonesia through the Ministry of Industry (MoI) pays special attention to the industry as stipulated in the National Industrial Development Master Plan (Rencana Induk Pengembangan Industri Nasional – RIPIN). RIPIN 2015, which is spanned between the years 2015 to 2035, is a guideline for the government and industry players in planning and developing the national industry. Considering the importance of the base petrochemical industry, this research was conducted to find plausible scenarios for the industry in Indonesia. The time horizon in this research is the year 2035 which is in line with RIPIN document. In obtaining possible scenarios, a literature review was carried out and followed by interviews with several relevant and competent sources. This research produced four scenarios namely “The Ruptured SBR”, “The Abandoned ABS”, “The Aromatic Painkillers”, and “The Flying Polyester”. The approach employed is a Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP) according to Adam Kahane’s work. This research does not focus on one particular entity or institution, but on the national basic petrochemical industry as a whole which consists of various stakeholders with different interests. So that in implementing the results of this research, it is important to realize that all parties need to contribute to achieve the desired future.

The Oilfield Service Company’s Business Development Strategy towards a Sustainable Energy with Scenario Planning

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Since the Paris Agreement where the countries in the world commit for the carbon emission reduction and net zero in 2050 or sooner, the energy transition has become the top topic in the energy sector. The oil-field services (OFS) industry is one of the business actors in the O&G supply chain with complex value chains, business structures, and models, and this research will explore scenario planning on the energy sector in Indonesia to have a forward-looking view of future O&G conditions in Indonesia including the energy transition which later became the key focal issue in this research. Scenarios are made based on the key driving factors and uncertainties that have been identified through the analysis of primary data from stakeholder interviews and secondary information from various literature studies. Furthermore, Scenarios are constructed based on how society responds to sustainable consumption and supporting infrastructures such as regulatory policies, the economic and investment environment, as well as technology and innovation. The four scenarios are (i) Empty Boat, (ii) Leaking Boat, (iii) Rocking the boat, and (iv) Rowing to Win. This research describes the implications, options, and strategies for each scenario which can then be taken into consideration by Green Bay Hornet Company (GBH) as an OFS company to enable proactive decisions and evaluate strategies to be resilient in each scenario. Reassessing the energy market, business conditions, and core competencies and how to expand and diversify technology, product, and service portfolios to renewable energy and decarbonizing initiatives in their operation is some of the strategies to expedite the transition in 2035.

Proposed Marketing Strategy to Fight Market Uncertainty for Indonesia Paper Company

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The paper industry has faced pressures from the digitalization process and climate change over the past five years. Currently, the war in Europe is adding to the pressure. Companies from the paper industry, such as Indonesia Paper Company, must review their business strategies in facing this global market uncertainty. Using the Scenario Planning approach, this study finds two possible scenarios that companies can prepare for: the economy deteriorates into a world economic crisis, or the economy improves. Both scenarios show significant changes in market segmentation that can impact business and marketing strategies. The company has a Competitive Advantage in the source of raw materials. Therefore, the company can apply the Cost Strategy in facing a crisis. The advantage can also help companies carry out a Focused Differentiation Strategy when the economy improves. When uncertainty is still high, like today, companies can make internal improvements to adapt to rapid technological changes and optimize performance.

Aligning PTCI Strategies to Global Corporate Strategies Using Scenario Planning

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Profitability and growth are two important and essential measures to a firm existence and survivability. Profitability is critical to a company’s short-term existence, and growth is crucial to long term survivability. Every business wants to maintain its existence and bring value to its stakeholders. Divestment and merger acquisition are part of the company strategy to achieve business growth that fulfil the company objectives, purpose, vision, and mission. In the case of a multinational company, it normally would have a global corporate strategy. Subsidiary companies will follow the strategic guidelines from its parent company. Thus, subsidiary company needs to align its strategy to the parent global corporate strategy.

Scenario planning used to answer the key focal issue about how to align subsidiary company strategy to its parent company global corporate strategy. One option for a firm to cope with uncertainty is scenario planning. Scenario planning is a unique tool compared to other decision analysis methodology. Scenario planning uses information on key uncertainties and certainties concerning the future to assemble an information rich illustration that provides eloquent descriptions of future worlds.

The data collected in this study comes from literature studies, interviews, questionnaires with internal and external stakeholders. External analysis is using the PESTEL framework and Porter Five Forces model. While internal analysis is using Growth-Share matrix, VRIO framework, and Strategic Diamond model. Information is consolidated to give driving forces that would shape up the future. Two driving forces that give the highest impact and uncertainty, Indonesia economic growth and company Product Innovation, are defined as critical uncertainty and used to construct a 2×2 scenario matrix. The scenario matrix, implication, options, and early warning systems are explored for each scenario to align subsidiary company strategy to its parent global company strategies.

Renewable Energy Transition Strategy for PT.CI to Reduce 50% Emission by 2030

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The global and Indonesia energy trend is heading to process of transitioning from fossil fuel to renewable energy (decarbonization) in the purpose of reducing Green House Gas (GHG) effects. Industries as one of the biggest contributors of emission generator expected to participate in this effort, where fuel and electricity play significant roles in running the operation. Many businesses try to participate and state their commitment on this energy transition initiative by increasing the portion of renewable energy within their operation. Meanwhile, business have several uncertainties’ on how the renewable energy will be acquired and will this renewable energy options be available at the time they need it. Campur Plc. (CP) through its subsidiary in Indonesia, PT. Campur Ilmiah (PT. CI) has targeted the entity to reduce 50% of the emission by 2030 with the baseline of 2018, which align with corporate target of 46.2% of emission reduction globally. Uncertainties on achieving this target generated from external and internal factors, and not to forget how to sustainably maintain the achievement. The location of PT.CI in industrial estate need to be considered as limitation because the power and energy supply are regulated. The accessibility, availability and affordability of renewable energy are expected to be handled by the government, industrial estate or other third party in energy business, but the phasing and the achievement up to now has not shown a promising progress. As a business, PT.CI need to have a strategic planning on this energy transition to support the global target as well as shown a positive investment climate in Indonesia. There are four (4) scenarios has been developed and each of the scenarios are explored to identify alternative and possible strategies to still be able achieving the target and how the organization manage these changes. As the conclusion of this research, four (4) strategic imperatives are defined. This research also might be use as the reference of future planning for the similar industries that have the similar target and type of energy mix.

Strategy Development for Survival & Growth of MRO Company during & Post Covid-19 Pandemic (Case Study: GMF Aeroasia)

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Indonesian Aviation Market 2020 was predicted to grow around 7.0% compared to 2019. It gave Indonesian MRO industry an optimism at first, at least in the beginning of the year, before WHO declared COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has a dire impact on the aviation & MRO industry. As of July 2021, flights still haven’t reached 50% compared to pre-COVID era. Many MRO companies, including GMF AeroAsia, must face an unprecedented situation that caused the market to shrink significantly, and enter the financial distress zone. Several initiatives have been taken by the company. However, with the protracted pandemic conditions and the uncertainty of Indonesian Aviation Market recovery, further strategies are needed to survive and growth. This study aims to analyze the company and develop a strategy based on 2 stages, namely the retrenchment phase and the recovery phase. The retrenchment phase will focus on the survival strategy, while the recovery phase will focus on the growth strategy using scenario planning because the future is still uncertain. From the analysis and interviews, several initiatives and strategies for survival and growth were developed. Several initiatives for survival include headcount cuts, operational efficiency, product elimination, liquidation & divestment, equity for debt swaps, and renegotiate with lenders. While the growth strategy was developed based on 4 scenarios, namely Flying Through Thunderstorm, Flying with Engine Failure, Flying with Broken Wings, and Flying Zig-Zag.