Abstract :

The article analyzes the natural distribution area of the species Phlomoides kirghisorum Adylov, Kamelin & Makhmedov using the programs of type MaxEnt and ArcGis, the endemic of Central Asia (past, future). According to the results of the study, it is proved that the main distribution of the species coincides with the boundaries of the areali Tien–Shan mountain system (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan). It is noted that the climatic factors that are optimal for the species are sufficient temperature and annual precipitation. According to both scenarios, it was found that the increase in temperature by 0.4–1.6 °C and 1.4–2.6 °C was directly influenced by the main bioclimatic factors such as Mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio11), Precipitation seasonality (Bio15).

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Keywords :

Bioclimatic modeling, climate change, Fergana Valley, MaxEnt, Phlomoides kirghisorum, WorldClim.

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