Bioclimatic Modeling of Phlomoides Kirghisorum (Lamiaceae) Species Distributed in Fergana Valley

ANNOTATION: The article analyzes the natural distribution area of the species Phlomoides kirghisorum Adylov, Kamelin & Makhmedov using the programs of type MaxEnt and ArcGis, the endemic of Central Asia (past, future). According to the results of the study, it is proved that the main distribution of the species coincides with the boundaries of the areali Tien–Shan mountain system (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan). It is noted that the climatic factors that are optimal for the species are sufficient temperature and annual precipitation. According to both scenarios, it was found that the increase in temperature by 0.4–1.6 °C and 1.4–2.6 °C was directly influenced by the main bioclimatic factors such as Mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio11), Precipitation seasonality (Bio15).

Phlomoides kirghisorum the chloroplast genome was studied in order to involve it in molecular studies (NCBI; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/NC_067634.1?report=fasta).Gulomov, 2022).Species ecology.D-F; Arbaghish village, and Ungortepa massif, Namangan province, Uzbekistan.There is no information on household or medical use.As a rare plant with a declining area, it is recommended for inclusion in the Red Books of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan (Gulomov 2022).Existing Conservation Threats are habitat fragmentation, farmlands, and overgrazing.

MATERIAL АND METHODS
Species registration information.Location information of the species Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; http://www.gbif.org),was deposited at the Herbarium of the Kongju National University (KNH, collection number: 102, collected by Gulomov), Samples stored in the funds of the herbarium of the Institute of Biology (FRU) of the Kyrgyz Academy of Sciences (Lazkov, 2011) and the National Herbarium of Uzbekistan (TASH) were used.20 GPS coordinates representing the areas indicated in the herbarium specimens were obtained using Google Earth Pro

WorldClim m
Different climate scenarios were used to model species distribution using MaxEnt software (version 3.4.4).They were downloaded from 2.5 (~4.64 km 2 at the equator) minute common socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios available from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM5) global climate for the future (www.worldclim.org).
Evaluation of MaxEnt model.Assessment of the future potential distribution of the species and the impact of bioclimatic factors was carried out based on the methodological recommendations of Phillips et al., (2006), Olonova et al., (2017).Initially, 20 coordinates in (Comma Separated Values) *CSV format were stored and 19 bioclimatic variables and altitude values obtained from the WorldClim database were imported into the MaxEnt model.To increase the accuracy of the simulation, the sample data were randomly used as test data (25%) and training data (75%).The algorithm was run using 500 iterations at 10,000 integrations with different randomizations (Bootstrap method).The resulting model was validated on the basis of the area under the curve (AUC) calculated from the receptor operating characteristic (ROC).
AUC (Area Under Receiver Operating Curve) is an effective autonomous threshold index capable of evaluating the model's ability (Deblauwe et al., 2011) In the results of the conducted research, a logistic output format was used to create a continuous set of values in the interval from 0 to 1 and obtain a model of the evaluated species.The contribution of variable environmental factors is evaluated according to the results of the Jackknife test.The results obtained in MaxEnt were mapped using ArcGIS 10.6.1 software (WGS; World Geodetic System 1984).For bioclimatic variables, correlation analysis was performed in the SDMtoolbox panel of ArcGIS software.

RESULTS АND DISCUSSION
The approximate prediction accuracy (AUCtraining data) of the MaxEnt model showed a high level of accuracy (0.986-0.999) overall.The significance of the distribution of environmental variables was analyzed using the Jacknife test, and the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of species were determined.The correlation coefficient is higher than + 0.8.On the map, high-level suitable areas for the distribution of the species are shown in red, moderately suitable areas in orange, and low and unsuitable areas in green and white colors.
In the period of industrial development , severe anthropogenic climate change has limited the range of the species, but the ecological niche of the species has shown that it can be spread in the Ketmen Mountains of Kazakhstan, Ardebil, Khorasan regions of Iran, and the West Alаy, Kurama ridge of the Fergana Valley (Fig. 2).The distribution of this species has not been recorded in the above-mentioned regions (Flora Kazakxtana, 1964;Flora Iranica, 1982).In general, the areas of high and medium suitability are 19<35 thousand km 2 .
Under the climate scenario RCP2.6_2070 from the period of industrial development, the average temperature of the cold quarter (Bio11), the seasonality of precipitation (Bio15) showed that the high and medium suitable growth area (22<60 km 2 ) of the species expands with the increase of the minimum greenhouse gas concentration (Fig. 3).The Jackknife test result of environmental factor.
In particular, Iran's Khorasan region, Kazakhstan's Ketmen Mountains, and Western Aloy regions of the Fergana Valley will become unsuitable for the species, and the species habitat will expand toward Western Tiyanshan, Talas, and the Kyrgyz mountain range.
Under the influence of the same climate variables and under the RCP 8.5_ 2070 climate scenario, the area of high suitability areas (18<70 km2) continues to decrease, while the area of medium suitability areas continues to expand.In particular, it showed the direction of the Fergana Valley in Southern Chotkal, Fergana, Eastern Alаy and Talas Alatau.(Fig. 4).The rest of the areas remain as areas of low suitability.The level of suitability corresponds to the average area in the area of residential areas.This indicates that the indicator of anthropogenic threat to the species is increasing.Climate change, pollution, habitat fragmentation, increase in the number of invasive species are considered one of the main problems of biodiversity in Fergana Valley region.These indicators indicate that the optimal and moderately suitable growth areas for the evaluated species are under strong anthropogenic threat (Fig. 5).
Temperature and precipitation factors were modeled separately under RCP2.6_2070,RCP8.5_2070 climate scenarios.The obtained results revealed that precipitation can have a positive effect on the species, and temperature is a relatively limiting climate factor that causes the species' optimal areas to expand (Gulomov, 2022).The results of modeling are used to analyze rare and endangered species, to conduct long-term monitoring of them and to determine the ecological optimum of the species.Determining the ecological optimum of the species will allow for the successful introduction of these species in the future.In addition, data on rare and endangered species will be used in future editions of local Red Books (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan).

CONCLUSION
Modeled species populations are located in areas under anthropogenic threat, with temperature increases under both climate RCP2.6_2070 (0.4-1.6 °C) and RCP8.5_2070 (1.4-2.6 °C) scenarios, showed that there is a direct relationship with the morphological characters of the species.The results of bioclimatic modeling allow to determine the most suitable potential growth areas for the restoration of the species population in-situ and ex-situ conditions and serve as a basis for planning strategies for sustainable use of resources.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.A-C) Picture of Phlomoides kirghisorum (by photo Gulomov, 2022).Species ecology.D-F; Arbaghish village, andUngortepa massif, Namangan province, Uzbekistan.There is no information on household or medical use.As a rare plant with a declining area, it is recommended for inclusion in the Red Books of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan(Gulomov 2022).Existing Conservation Threats are habitat fragmentation, farmlands, and overgrazing.
7.1 software (www.Google.com/earth)and collected during targeted field research (Arbaghish village, Ungortepa massif, Namangan province, Uzbekistan) during 2020-2023 years enriched with information.Environmental Variables and Processing.The climate variables were downloaded from the WorldClim v2.1 database (www.worldclim.org).Climate data includes 19 (Bio1-Bio19) bioclimatic variables (Tab.1)consisting of monthly temperature and precipitation.They represent annual trends, seasonality, extreme or limiting environmental factors.In addition to bioclimatic factors, edaphic factors were included.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Results of bioclimatic modeling of distribution of Phlomoides kirghisorum; A) Results of modeling the period of industrial development (1970-2000); B) Receiver operating characteristic curve of species in MaxEnt model; C) Feasibility of a species prediction model; D) The Jackknife test result of environmental factor.

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Results of bioclimatic modeling of distribution of Phlomoides kirghisorum; A) RCP2.6_2070s (2061-2080) modeling results; B) Receiver operating characteristic curve of species in MaxEnt model; C) Feasibility of a species prediction model; D)The Jackknife test result of environmental factor.

Figure 4 .
Figure 4. Results of bioclimatic modeling of distribution of Phlomoides kirghisorum; A) RCP8.5_2070s (2061-2080) modeling results; B) Receiver operating characteristic curve of species in MaxEnt model; C) Feasibility of a species prediction model; D)The Jackknife test result of environmental factor

Figure 5 .
Figure 5. Area suitability (high and medium) index for different climate scenarios