Articles

Comparative Analysis of Volatility Levels of 10 Stock Indices on the Indonesian Stock Exchange on 2 Economic Events Using Time Series Econometric Methods

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The purpose of this study is to determine the level of volatility of the 10 Stock Indices on the IDX during COVID-19 Economic Crisis and in the Economic Recovery periods in order to understand the benefits and risks of investing in post-economic crisis The results of this study indicate that 6 of 10 stock indices have no difference in the level of volatility in the 2 events. Only 4 Stock Indices have different levels of volatility. In the post-crisis period, the volatility of the stock index is at a very low level, so it is very interesting to see the investment returns opportunities. Although in these 2 events; majority of volatility levels of stock indices are relatively low in terms of parameters; but there is a fairly large gab of volatility values. High levels of volatility can also occur not only during crisis but also when the economy has improved.

Modeling and Forecasting of Tourism Demand in Malaysia

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The pattern of foreign tourist demand to Malaysia is analysed and forecasted using time series method and non-linear technique. There are nine selected countries that contribute a lot to tourist arrivals to Malaysia, namely Australia, Brunei, China, Indonesia, India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Box-Jenkins time series method and Singular Spectrum Analysis are conducted and compared to study the best model to forecast the foreign tourist demand to Malaysia. Monthly data of tourism arrival in 1990 to 2014 were used and the forecasting were compared with 2015. Based on the results obtained, the forecasting model of Box-Jenkins time series method is the best model based on the percentage accuracy in forecasting the tourist demand to Malaysia.