Articles

Prediction of Stock Price Volatility Using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Model for Investment Portfolio Selection Strategy

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Volatility is an important variable in financial data models. Predicting volatility in financial data is helpful for investors to make good decisions to reduce risk and to gain investment returns. In predicting volatility, many researchers have conducted research in building prediction models using data mining. This research uses a deep learning algorithm, namely Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) which has high accuracy compared to other models. The research aims to predict stock price volatility and for investment portfolio selection. The object of this study is the historical stock price of PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk. (UNVR), PT. Fast Food Indonesia Tbk. (FAST) which manages KFC and PT. MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk. (MAPB) which manages Starbucks in the period 2023 to 2024, when there was a boycott caused by the war between countries that occurred in the Middle East. The data is analysed using the LSTM model where stock price volatility was determined by the variance of the return and log return on the next seven days, then using LSTM the stock price volatility data was predicted. The results show that the MSE and RMSE values are very small, which means that the volatility prediction results are almost the same as the actual data. And the average volatility prediction results in UNVR stock of 0.00841, MAPB stock of 0.01717, and FAST stock of 0.01323. From these results can be used as a reference for the selection of investment portfolios.

Correlation between Financial Performances with the Stock Price in Indonesia Stock Exchange on Telecommunication Industry for 2017-2021 (Case Study: PT Telkom, PT XL Axiata, PT Indosat Ooredoo)

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Over the past few decades, telecommunication in Indonesia has experienced enormous growth and development, playing a crucial role in supporting the advancement of society, economic prosperity, and human connectivity. A couple major companies dominate the market including PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia and private firms like PT Indosat Ooredoo and PT XL Axiata. These companies provide a wide range of services, including mobile phone service, fixed-line services, internet connectivity, and digital solutions, adapting to the diverse needs of businesses and individuals across the country. The purpose of this research is to determine how financial ratios affect stock prices on the Indonesian stock exchange. Additionally, this study compares the financial health of PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, PT Indosat Ooredoo, and PT XL Axiata based on ratio comparison of Decree No. KEP-100/MBU/2002.

The results indicates that PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia has the healthiest financial performance by obtained AA category compared to PT Indosat Ooredoo and PT XL Axiata. This study finds the effect of eight financial ratios on the telecommunication industry for five years period. Based on the multiple linear regression test namely T test, it resulted that total asset turnover and total equity have a positive significant effect on stock price partially with a value less than 0.05. The F tests shows that all independent variables have effect to the stock prices by 80% and the remaining 20% are influenced by models outside this study.

Analysis of Changes in Food and Beverage Sector Stock Prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

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Stock prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), always fluctuate, so it is necessary to analyze any variables that affect stock prices. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that affect stock prices, the Food and Beverage Sector on the IDX for the period 2015 to 2019. The analysis method uses correlation, regression, t test, Anova test and multiple linear analysis with several classical assumption tests. The research population was 18 companies and the sample studied was 12 companies and data processing using SPSS Version 22.

The conclusions of the study are (a). Interest rates have no significant effect on stock prices, while firm size and earnings per share value have a significant effect on stock prices. Simultaneously, the three independent variables (Interest rate, company size and Earning per share), have a significant effect on the stock price of Food and Beverages on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.