Articles

Feasibility Study for Investment as Agent (Case Study: PT. Tirta Chemoil)

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After the financial sector underwent a dramatic transformation in 2020, primarily brought on by the COVID-19 Pandemic, certain areas of the market have recovered while others are still struggling to recover from the financial losses brought on by the pandemic. Despite the drop of sales, and the growth trend was declining. PT. Tirta Chemoil show a good trend of oil sales that shows it is gradually increasing from 2018 which means that oil industry is generating a good revenue to the company. Thus, being told that there is an opportunity to be an agent of brand R, the stakeholder asked me to do the financial feasibility study to see whether their investment are worth it and able to generate a return in 10 years ahead. The research objectives on this study mainly about the feasibility of the company invest in being an agent for the lubricants oil brand. The feasibility study mainly use the indicator on discounted cash flow (DCF) such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), and payback period. This feasibility study use sensitivity analysis to see the effect on the change of price and quantity to the generated NPV, also use monte carlo analysis to complete with the simulation analysis. Lubricants industry in Indonesia is growing year to year and projected to generate a constant growth on the next few years. The segmentation is all of the industrial oil, targeting West Java market especially industry that use lubricants as the main component for their machinery, and positioning in a premium grade oil. The generated NPV is Rp 5,394,761,715.48, IRR 46%, PI 5,94, and payback period in 4 years. The conclusion is PT. Tirta Chemoil should take the chance to invest in the new product with lowering the initial investment and Capital expenditure so that the payback period can be faster and it can generate more revenue.

Economic Feasibility Study of a Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery Project in Indonesia Based on Conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) And Real Option Valuation Model: Case Study at PT ABC

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Indonesia had become an oil exporter that is recognized by the world for many years and joined The Organization of Petroleum Export Community (OPEC) – an organization that controls petroleum production, supplies, and prices in the global market – in 1962. However, oil production in Indonesia has been decreasing from year to year, one of which is due to the lack of investment in the exploration of new oil wells in Indonesia so the majority of upstream oil and gas work in Indonesia is exploiting old wells which will naturally decline steadily. This resulted in Indonesia becoming a net import oil country in 2003. Therefore, additional operations are needed to maximize oil production from these existing wells, one of which is by conducting Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (CEOR). The main objective of EOR itself is to mobilize the remaining oil by enhancing the oil displacement and volumetric sweep efficiency. PT. ABC, a subsidiary of PT. XYZ (a state-owned company under SKK Migas and PT Pertamina supervision) which is engaged in the upstream sector in Indonesia, is assigned by the government to carry out one of the CEOR projects that have been determined by the Government. This research covers the economic feasibility of the CEOR Project based on the conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Real Option Valuation (ROV) Model. The revenue-sharing policy used for the project economic calculation is the gross split method. The result of the economic analysis using the DCF method is the project is not economically feasible to run as the net present value (NPV) shows negative which is -2,911 MUSD. However, the real option valuation model helped increase the value to 11,416 MUSD by adopting a strategic option which is an option to delay and time flexibility into the project. As a result, the project could be economically feasible if the operation is deferred to the following year and the oil price is over 85.2 USD/BBL.

Techno-Economic Feasibility of Applying Sugarcane Waxbased Phase Change Material to Lower Photovoltaic Panel Temperature

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A reduction in power output from a solar photovoltaic (PV) panel is caused by a high operating temperature resulting mitigating economic benefits. Therefore, phase change material (PCM) situated in the back of a solar panel is used to maintain the surface temperature of the panel close to ambient. This research aimed to improve solar power generation efficiency by selecting a suitable thickness of encapsulated phase change material (EPCM) based on energy efficiency and economic analysis. At the increase of the EPCM layer thickness from 4 mm to 7 mm, the maximum power generation efficiency was improved by 15.86% owing to the EPCM heat storage capacity. The efficiency of solar panels-7 mm layer EPCM module was 6% higher than the PVs without EPCM. Adding an EPCM on the back of a solar panel lasted 16 days under natural conditions. However, a net present value (NPV) over a 25-year project of solar systems with a 7 mm thick EPCM layer is negative while that of solar systems without EPCM is more profitable than that of solar systems with a 4 mm thick EPCM layer. Applying sensitivity analysis to NPV of PV-EPCM modules was studied under changes in material cost of EPCM and power feed-in tariff. The result of sensitivity analysis of PV-7 mm thick EPCM layer shows 40% reduction in material cost of EPCM or 50% increase of energy price contributes to positive profitability.