Articles

Prediction of Stock Price Volatility Using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Model for Investment Portfolio Selection Strategy

/in /by

Volatility is an important variable in financial data models. Predicting volatility in financial data is helpful for investors to make good decisions to reduce risk and to gain investment returns. In predicting volatility, many researchers have conducted research in building prediction models using data mining. This research uses a deep learning algorithm, namely Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) which has high accuracy compared to other models. The research aims to predict stock price volatility and for investment portfolio selection. The object of this study is the historical stock price of PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk. (UNVR), PT. Fast Food Indonesia Tbk. (FAST) which manages KFC and PT. MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk. (MAPB) which manages Starbucks in the period 2023 to 2024, when there was a boycott caused by the war between countries that occurred in the Middle East. The data is analysed using the LSTM model where stock price volatility was determined by the variance of the return and log return on the next seven days, then using LSTM the stock price volatility data was predicted. The results show that the MSE and RMSE values are very small, which means that the volatility prediction results are almost the same as the actual data. And the average volatility prediction results in UNVR stock of 0.00841, MAPB stock of 0.01717, and FAST stock of 0.01323. From these results can be used as a reference for the selection of investment portfolios.

Analysing Risk & Return Profiles: A Comparative Study of the Indonesian Stock Market against International Benchmarks

/in /by

The Indonesian stock market, also known as IDX, has emerged as a prominent player in the financial landscape of Southeast Asia. It has attracted the interest of investors who regard it as a potential source of massive returns. Nevertheless, empirical research has consistently demonstrated that developing nations’ stock markets tend to exhibit a notable degree of volatility. This volatility is well recognised for its propensity to amplify risk levels for domestic investors, potentially leading to a decrease in the demand for stock market investments. The observed phenomenon in Indonesia reveals a very low degree of stock market engagement when compared to benchmark nations. This suggests that the high volatility in the market may be a contributing factor.

Understanding the risk-return characteristics of the IDX in comparison to recognised benchmark indexes is crucial for making educated investment decisions. This study will conduct a comparative analysis of the risk-return attributes of the IDX in comparison to six well recognised benchmark indexes, specifically the S&P 500 Index, the Straits Times Index, the FTSE 100 Index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite, the BSE Sensex, and the BOVESPA Index. The study employs several risk and return measures, such as standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the Sharpe ratio, to assess the relative performance of the IDX.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the comparative appeal of the Indonesian stock market when compared to international benchmarks, with a specific focus on risk and return. The aim is to determine the optimal level of stock market involvement and the inclination towards risk aversion or risk-seeking behaviour among retail investors in Indonesia.

Investment Project Analysis of a Medium Range (MR) Tanker Ships Purchase in an Attempt to Maintain the Economic Productivity of the Company (Case Study: PT XYZ)

/in /by

PT. XYZ is a spin-off charter out business of its host company that specifically focuses on providing charter out services in the shipping industry. This research was carried out in response to the requirement to rejuvenate the vessels owned by PT XYZ taking into consideration the age of the ships. In total, there will be 7 ships that was used as an object of this research, considering the replacement program options of either acquiring newbuild vessels or secondhand ships. Newbuild Ship investment will use a 9.09% hurdle rate, including the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.09% and a risk premium of 2% in the analysis. This hurdle rate will be used as comparative data to the required rate of return for the related project (IRR>Hurdle Rate). There is a total of 2 ship in the overall project that will be replaced with a newbuild ship, Project 1 and Project 2. These investment projects will be conducted from 2024-2026 period. The capital structure for newbuild projects consisted of 75% debt and 25% equity. Secondhand ship investment will use an 9.59% hurdle rate, including the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.09% and a risk premium of 2.5% in the analysis. There is a total of 5 ships in the overall project that will be replaced with secondhand ship, Project 3-7. These investment projects will be conducted from 2024-2026 period. The capital structure for secondhand projects consisted of 75% debt and 25% equity. Based on the financial assessments of the projects, the findings consistently demonstrate positive results. As a result, it can be inferred that the seven projects are both viable and feasible to undertake. The primary objective is to guarantee that these projects make a positive contribution to the company’s economic productivity.

Factors Affecting Investment Decisions in the Gig Economy in the City of Bandung

/in /by

The job landscape has seen substantial changes as a result of the gig economy’s explosive rise, as more and more people prefer to freelance and self-contract. This change impacts employment dynamics and opens up new investment options. Individual investors and policymakers who want to profit from this developing industry must comprehend the elements that affect their investment decisions in the gig economy. The goal of this research study is to present a thorough examination of the variables affecting investment choices in the gig economy. 410 respondents were used in a quantitative method approach for this. The gig economy in the city of Bandung served as the study’s respondents. The extent to which investment knowledge, risk, profitability, and financial knowledge affect investment decisions is examined in this study. The research’s conclusions provide light on a number of crucial variables affecting investment choices in the gig economy. As investors seek for possibilities with the potential for a good return on their capital, investment profitability first comes into play as the component that has the most of an impact. Due to the necessity of using “cold money” when investing, financial knowledge has the second-highest level of influence.The study also discovered that in the gig economy, investment knowledge had the least influence on choices. Despite the fact that research is necessary before beginning to invest. As a result, the researchers suggest a number of ways to improve investment knowledge, including reading articles and listening to podcasts, getting advice from those with experience, and going to investment seminars. All of it is doable for money or for free.

Business Valuation for Company Decision Making Case Study of: PT HIJ

/in /by

The spread of COVID-19 and technological advancement has opened many doors for start-up company around the world, especially in Indonesia. Due to the nature of the virus where it may spread through physical contact, people have been avoiding going out, aligned with government policy that restrict citizen movement such a lockdown. The consumer behaviour began to shift as shown by number of people cooking at home, and number of delivery service are increasing. Seeing opportunity to serve in this market, PT HIJ is then founded to provide timely full set of fresh high-quality ingredients ready to cook delivered to the door of the customer. After one year of operation, the management experienced shortage of fund to grow the business and believed that it is right to source for new funding from the investors. As the management team have no experience in performing valuation, they would like to receive an insight about the valuation of their business. The study will cover the business model of PT HIJ, start-up ecosystem, analysis of the business environment and evaluation of valuation method. Based on the study, PT HIJ has a solid business model to grow its business. The trend of digitalization, government support and rising health awareness will benefit the company as one of the new start-ups itself. Also include in this study is valuation process performed using discounted cash flow method, venture capital method and scorecard method. It can be concluded from the three techniques, the valuation resulting in an enterprise value ranging up to IDR 470 million, with the median of valuation at IDR 262 million.

Business Opportunity Analysis on Halal Vaccine in the Indonesian Market (Case Study of XYZ Biopharmaceutical Company in Jakarta)

/in /by

Vaccine hesitancy is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a behavior influenced by several factors, including issues of confidence (do not trust vaccine or provider), complacency (do not perceive a need for a vaccine, do not value the vaccine), and convenience (do not perceive a need for a vaccine, do not value the vaccine) (access). Muslim consumers are becoming increasingly aware of halal medications in addition to food products. They’re starting to notice the negative consequences of product development, testing, and production, all of which may deviate from halal standards. As a result of this confusion, the general public is beginning to question the sources of their medicinal items.

Conservative Muslims may refuse vaccinations due to worries that some vaccines were obtained from the contents of pigs or porcine, which Muslims are prohibited from eating. Today, a quarter of the inhabitants of the world are Muslims. This figure is expected to grow by 35% over the next two decades, leaping from 1.6 billion to 2.2 billion by 2030. By 2021, the worldwide halal pharmaceutical industry will be worth USD 132 billion. Based on data from the Directorate General of Population and Civil Registration of the Ministry of Home Affairs, the total population of Indonesia is 272.23 million in June 2021. Of this number, 236.53 million people (86.88%) are Muslims.

To turn this hesitancy into an opportunity, XYZ Pharmaceutical plans to build a manufacturing plant for halal vaccines. In this research, the vaccines that will be produced by XYZ are ACYW135 Meningococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine, ACYW135 Meningococcal Conjugate Vaccine, 13 Valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine, and 23 Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine. These vaccines are selected due to their close association with halal vaccines for the use case of Indonesian vaccine hesitancy. The objective of this study is to assess the feasibility of the halal vaccine manufacturing plant project through financial methods emphasizing capital budgeting technique, internal study, and market analysis. The result of this study shows that the development of the XYZ halal vaccine manufacturing plant is financially feasible due to the net present value of (USD 81,141,154), internal rate of return of (31.43%), the payback period of 4 years and six months, and the profitability index of (5.06), which in other scenarios testing are all acceptable for this project.

Islamic Financial Development between Investment and Economic Growth in the MENA Region and East Asia and the Pacific

/in /by

The purpose of this paper is to study, in the first place, the theoretical relationship between Islamic financial development, investment and economic growth. Second, we empirically try to discover the interaction between “Islamic financial development, investment and economic growth”. Our empirical study highlights the direct effects of Islamic financial development on growth and investment. Finally, we also clarify the indirect effects of Islamic financial development on growth through Investment and vice versa, also on other socio-economic indicators over the period from 1990 to 2018, while using the model with simultaneous equations for the MENA region and East Asia and the Pacific.