Articles

Estimating the Synergy Value of Merger Valuation between Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) and Sharia Business Unit of (SBU) Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN)

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The merger and acquisition of banking industry are a very important issue in Indonesia. Similar to other banking mergers, the mergers will benefit Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI), Sharia Business Unit of Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN), and all company stakeholders. This study assessing Bank Syariah Indonesia’s current business environment, determine company’s valuation. This study analyses the environmental aspects of Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI), both external and internal. Research methodology using quantitative and case study design. This study collects secondary data through various sources. This study computes valuation using Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) and the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. The result show that the synergy value of merger valuation between Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) and Sharia Business Unit of Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) is Rp.98,333,621.89. By calculating the synergy value of Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) and Sharia Business Unit of Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) merger, management could get additional data from preparation of merger and acquisition process.

 

Feasibility Study for Investment as Agent (Case Study: PT. Tirta Chemoil)

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After the financial sector underwent a dramatic transformation in 2020, primarily brought on by the COVID-19 Pandemic, certain areas of the market have recovered while others are still struggling to recover from the financial losses brought on by the pandemic. Despite the drop of sales, and the growth trend was declining. PT. Tirta Chemoil show a good trend of oil sales that shows it is gradually increasing from 2018 which means that oil industry is generating a good revenue to the company. Thus, being told that there is an opportunity to be an agent of brand R, the stakeholder asked me to do the financial feasibility study to see whether their investment are worth it and able to generate a return in 10 years ahead. The research objectives on this study mainly about the feasibility of the company invest in being an agent for the lubricants oil brand. The feasibility study mainly use the indicator on discounted cash flow (DCF) such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), and payback period. This feasibility study use sensitivity analysis to see the effect on the change of price and quantity to the generated NPV, also use monte carlo analysis to complete with the simulation analysis. Lubricants industry in Indonesia is growing year to year and projected to generate a constant growth on the next few years. The segmentation is all of the industrial oil, targeting West Java market especially industry that use lubricants as the main component for their machinery, and positioning in a premium grade oil. The generated NPV is Rp 5,394,761,715.48, IRR 46%, PI 5,94, and payback period in 4 years. The conclusion is PT. Tirta Chemoil should take the chance to invest in the new product with lowering the initial investment and Capital expenditure so that the payback period can be faster and it can generate more revenue.

Unraveling PT Cita Mineral Investindo: Growth Potential through Organic & Inorganic Strategies under Bauxite Export Ban

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Downstreaming has bring significant impact for Indonesia’s economy, with higher price on goods that were processed to gain a higher value, from IDR 17 trillion (USD 1,1 billion) at the end of 2014 to IDR 326 trillion (USD 20,9 billion) in 2021, Indonesia was able to boost the value of its nickel exports by up to 19 times. However, concerns arise as there may be a lack of clarity and confidence among investors on investment potential in Indonesia’s bauxite mining business, potentially leading to the failure on increasing added value due to the inadequate numbers of bauxite smelters to support the downstreaming process.

Bauxite export ban as part of Indonesia’s effort to downstream more minerals could lead PT Cita Mineral Investindo’s growth to plateau due to their main business is in bauxite mining with products of Metallurgical Grade Bauxite. It may affect its revenue stream negatively, and limit their potential to grow even further. Bauxite industry currently aligned with Indonesia’s plan to be a big player in EV production in the future, which could contribute to the production of aluminium material and key component to EV batteries. The study will examine the valuation of PT Cita Mineral Investindo with the scenarios of organic growth and inorganic growth in an effort to market and increase their domestic sales in order to quantify the opportunities that PT Cita Mineral Investindo may have in complying with the new regulations. The study will involve Financial Ratio Analysis to assess its business condition and DCF valuation will assess the enterprise value for both growth strategy. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most factor influencing the enterprise value of the company.

The enterprise value of PT Cita Mineral Investindo in the organic growth scenario is valued at IDR 9.505.697.469.283 and in the inorganic growth scenario is valued at IDR 12.018.885.689.175. Tornado chart sensitivity analysis shows that the most influencing factors are WACC and terminal growth rate. PT Cita Mineral Investindo is valued higher when it uses an inorganic growth scenario. To achieve this, PT Cita Mineral Investindo must utilize inorganic growth through a set of joint-venture and strategic partnerships.

 

Company Valuation of PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Due to the Coal Price Volatility

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This study examines the financial performance and valuation of PT Adaro Energy Indonesia, a major coal mining company in Indonesia, considering declining coal prices. The analysis reveals a downward trend in the forecast coal price index from 2023 to 2030, but the company’s coal production continues to grow due to global demand. Financial ratios indicate a strong performance compared to industry peers. Discounted cash flow analysis shows positive cash flow, assuming coal price growth ceases by 2030 due to zero carbon emission policies. The study concludes that PT Adaro Energy Indonesia is overvalued and suggests strategic measures such as diversification and exploring new business areas to mitigate risks and enhance long-term sustainability.

Valuation of GoTo Post-Merger: Analysis of the Key Drivers

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The pandemic has led to significant growth in Indonesia’s digital economy, with e-commerce and on-demand services driving growth. However, many startups go public before achieving profitability, raising concerns about their long-term financial sustainability. PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk., an Indonesian startup, went public in April 2022 but experienced a 75% decline in share price by December. This research aims to identify potential strategies to improve GoTo’s profitability, determine implementation methods, assess intrinsic value, and analyze associated risks. The research design process includes a literature review, data collection, and financial projections using the Discounted Cash Flow method. Horizontal integration through mergers and acquisitions holds the greatest potential to enhance GoTo’s profitability. Implementing this strategy requires sustainable revenue growth, strategic investments, and rigorous cost management practices. GoTo must prioritize sustainable revenue growth, strategic investments, and cost reduction strategies to achieve its strategic objectives.

Will Merger of PT Angkasa Pura I and PT Angkasa Pura II Maximise The Value of Shareholders?

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The government’s program of restructuring state-owned enterprises continues to this day. From 2016 to March 2022, the number of SOE continuously decrease. In March 2022, the number of SOEs only 41 companies. The number of SOEs has reduced by 52.87% from the previous year. The plan will continue in 2023 by cutting 41 companies to 30 companies and operating in 12 clusters. PT Angkasa Pura I and PT Angkasa Pura II are the following plans for restructuring state-owned enterprises. The merger of the two companies is expected to provide synergy opportunities in operational efficiency. The results showed synergy between PT Angkasa Pura I and PT Angkasa Pura II. Based on calculations using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, the company value of PT Angkasa Pura I is IDR 4,169,267 and the company value of PT Angkasa Pura II is IDR 9,784,469 with a total combined company value of IDR 13,953,736. While the value of the two companies when synergizing is IDR 25,051,653. The synergy value obtained for both companies is IDR 11,097,917.

By determining the premium value of 40% – 60%, the premium value reaches IDR 1,667,707 – IDR 2,501,560. Therefore, within this premium value range, the purchase price is IDR 5,836,974 – IDR 6,670,827. The merger between PT Angkasa Pura I and PT Angkasa Pura II can potentially maximize shareholder value in the IDR 4,427,090 – IDR 5,260,943 range.

Analysis using Discounted Cash Flow for the two companies proves that there is a synergy resulting from the proposed merger between PT Angkasa Pura I and PT Angkasa Pura II.

Feasibility Study of Student Financing Startup Company for BRI Ventures Investments Study Case of: “Company A”

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The problem faced by BRI Venture is to determine the feasibility of investing in Company A, a start-up in the student financing market in Indonesia. The valuation of start-ups in Indonesia is difficult, making it challenging for BRI Venture to assess the viability of the investment. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting Company A’s business, both internally and externally, in order to make an informed investment decision.

The study focuses on three key research objectives: (1) to examine the macroeconomic and industry impact on Company A’s business by using Porter’s Five Forces model, PESTLE model, and market sizing; (2) to examine the internal aspects impacting Company A’s business by using the VRIO model; and (3) to determine the valuation of Company A by using the DCF and relative valuation methods.

The findings of the study reveal that the Indonesian student financing market presents both opportunities and challenges. The PESTEL analysis highlights the increasing demand for student loans in Indonesia, creating growth opportunities for the industry. However, the Five Porter framework analysis highlights the intense competition, strong buyer bargaining power, and weak supplier bargaining power, which may make it difficult for new entrants to succeed.

The VRIO Framework analysis suggests that Company A has a number of sources of sustained competitive advantage, including adaptable repayment terms, technological capabilities, and market position, indicating that Company A’s internal situation is strong. The Absolute Valuation and Relative Valuation results indicate that Company A valuation is between $59 million and $73 million.

In conclusion, while the Indonesian student financing market presents a growth opportunity, BRI Venture must carefully consider the challenges and competition in the market before making an investment in Company A. The internal analysis of Company A suggests that it has a strong position in the market, with a range of assets and competencies that can offer a sustainable competitive advantage. The valuation results provide a range of potential equity stake that BRI Venture could ask for if an investment in Company A is made.

Business Valuation Using Discounted Cash Flow Method in Restaurant Industry (Case Study: Coffee Shop XYZ)

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The level of coffee consumption continues to increase from year to year due to the influence of third wave coffee, this also affects the sales of Coffee Shop XYZ which continue to increase. Departing from this success, management wants to open two new branches, namely in Purwakarta and in Subang through raising funds on the equity crowdfunding platform. That’s why Coffee Shop XYZ needs steps for company valuation to find out the business value and share price that Coffee Shop XYZ will provide. Coffee Shop XYZ’s company valuation assessment uses absolute and non-absolute valuation methods, where the absolute valuation method uses discounted cash flow with terminal value, while the non-absolute valuation method uses a relative model which compares Coffee Shop XYZ’s financial ratios with similar companies in the same industry. , namely the restaurant. Based on the results of the study using the absolute valuation method, it was found that Coffee Shop XYZ had an enterprise value of Rp 19.930.457.260, with a share price of Rp 49.706,38 and 390.000 outstanding shares. Meanwhile, based on the non-absolute method, the EV/EBIT, P/E and P/B ratios indicate that Coffee Shop XYZ is undervalued, meaning that the business will generate greater profits, and the business is considered not too high-risk for investment. It also has a fair share price and the ratios show its ability to distribute dividends to investors. In conclusion, based on Coffee Shop XYZ’s valuation, it is known as a declining overvalued company. Even so, Coffee Shop XYZ will still provide positive residual income.

 

Stock Valuation and Financial Performance of Nickel Mining Company in Indonesia (Case Study: PT Vale Indonesia Tbk)

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Indonesia is home to 22% of the world’s nickel deposits, and its restriction on nickel ore exports since 2020 has resulted in significant changes to the supply chains of vital items such as electric vehicles and the stainless steel sector. Approximately 75% of nickel is used in the manufacturing of stainless steel, the most common use of nickel. However, nickel is also essential for the fabrication of electric vehicle (EV) battery cathodes, which are required for the shift to green energy. Current EV battery demand accounts for around 7% of worldwide output, but anticipated increases in EV demand will result in an exponential increase in nickel demand. The exponential increase in nickel demand led to volatility in global nickel prices. Volatility in global nickel prices is affecting companies that operate nickel mining businesses. PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as one of the nickel mining firms operating in the nickel mining business (IDX). The volatility of the global nickel price is both a breath of fresh air and a problem for the firm. INCO may also participate in and benefit from the rising worldwide demand for nickel in the foreseeable future.

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the intrinsic value of a nickel mining company in order to assist investors in making decisions in the current market environment. Evaluation of financial performance over the last five years and projections for the next five years using absolute and relative valuation methodologies. The author suggests investors to purchase this stock using a risk-reward assessment suited to each investor’s circumstances and the potential return earned. Referring to the stock valuation evaluation, investors are recommended to purchase if the price of INCO falls below the range of IDR 6,051 to IDR 6,335. When the market price is inside and above the intended range, it is not advisable for an investor to purchase INCO.

Economic Feasibility Study of a Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery Project in Indonesia Based on Conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) And Real Option Valuation Model: Case Study at PT ABC

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Indonesia had become an oil exporter that is recognized by the world for many years and joined The Organization of Petroleum Export Community (OPEC) – an organization that controls petroleum production, supplies, and prices in the global market – in 1962. However, oil production in Indonesia has been decreasing from year to year, one of which is due to the lack of investment in the exploration of new oil wells in Indonesia so the majority of upstream oil and gas work in Indonesia is exploiting old wells which will naturally decline steadily. This resulted in Indonesia becoming a net import oil country in 2003. Therefore, additional operations are needed to maximize oil production from these existing wells, one of which is by conducting Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (CEOR). The main objective of EOR itself is to mobilize the remaining oil by enhancing the oil displacement and volumetric sweep efficiency. PT. ABC, a subsidiary of PT. XYZ (a state-owned company under SKK Migas and PT Pertamina supervision) which is engaged in the upstream sector in Indonesia, is assigned by the government to carry out one of the CEOR projects that have been determined by the Government. This research covers the economic feasibility of the CEOR Project based on the conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Real Option Valuation (ROV) Model. The revenue-sharing policy used for the project economic calculation is the gross split method. The result of the economic analysis using the DCF method is the project is not economically feasible to run as the net present value (NPV) shows negative which is -2,911 MUSD. However, the real option valuation model helped increase the value to 11,416 MUSD by adopting a strategic option which is an option to delay and time flexibility into the project. As a result, the project could be economically feasible if the operation is deferred to the following year and the oil price is over 85.2 USD/BBL.