Articles

Valuation and Financial Performance Analysis of Pt. Indika Energy

/in /by

According to a coal market update study by the International Energy Agency, coal prices have been highly volatile during the previous five years, significantly influencing Indonesian coal companies’ operations and substantially impacting income and stock values. Furthermore, the increased global attention to addressing climate change is anticipated to lead to stricter enforcement of carbon emissions laws by 2030. PT. Indika Energy is an energy company that highly relies on coal prices, accounting for 75% to 88% of its revenue. Indika has stated four strategies, two of which are Efficiency and Synergy Optimization, and Prudent management. However, the result of profitability performance is not aligned with the company strategy. This research proposes to evaluate the comprehensive financial performance, assess the intrinsic value using the DCF-FCFF approach, and estimate PT’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and Market to Book (M/B) ratio. Indika Energy. This study uses several ratios, including liquidity, profitability, activity, and leverage ratio. The study revealed that the company demonstrates the worst liquidity performance and is the least profitable among its peers. However, the company has managed to maintain the most significant leverage ratio. According to the DCF valuation, the company appears to be undervalued, with an intrinsic value of IDR 3,247, while the market value is IDR 1,540. The company is also undervalued based on its relative valuation metrics. It has a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 1.06 and a price-to-book value (PBV) of 0.45, compared to the industry average PER of 5.15 and PBV of 5.27. Hence, the company should minimize its reliance on subcontractors by optimizing its cost structure.

Stock Valuation and Dividend Policy Decision of PT ELSA INDONESIA, TBK

/in /by

Oil shortages began in 2015 due to underinvestment caused by ESG policy. Oil firms need the funds to finance their new refinery, rig, and exploration since most western countries are switching from oil to alternative energy.

Geopolitical and economic instability, fear of a downturn, and rising inflation have harmed the worldwide Oil and Gas services market Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices rose to USD122/barrel for WTI and USD128/barrel for Brent. WTI fell to USD80/barrel and Brent to USD86/barrel by 2022, despite mid-year volatility. PT Elnusa Tbk is an integrated oil services company through its subsidiaries, offers services that include geophysical data, drilling, and oilfield services. The objective of this research is proposes to evaluate the financial performance, valuation and making a recommendation for ELSA regarding its cash. Two methods of valuation are utilized to estimate ELSA’s intrinsic value: absolute valuation and relative valuation. Discounted Cash Flow to the Firm (DCF) model is used for absolute valuation, meanwhile Price to Book Value (PBV) and Price to Earning Ratio (P/E Ratio) methods are used for relative valuation. Dividend policy and buyback share projection is conducted to find the best decision for ELSA. By referring to absolute valuation, ELSA’s intrinsic value is estimated at IDR639/share. By referring to relative valuation using PBV and P/E methods, ELSA’s intrinsic value is calculated at IDR 564/share . These numbers are significantly higher than ELSA’s current price at IDR 378/share, thus providing relatively high margin of safety.in the following stage ELSA will keep on paying dividends to the shareholders. With ELSA DPR 33,25% in 10 years ELSA will have 4,756,289 million in 10 years and the cash could be for management risk if a big crisis or force majeure.

Stock Valuation and Business Performances of Indonesia Health Care Provider Company after Post Covid 19 Pandemics (Case Study of PT. Medikaloka Hermina, Tbk.)

/in /by

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a contraction in the Indonesian economy, as evidenced by the large number of layoffs, and several companies had to declare bankruptcy, but this did not occur for companies engaged in health services, including hospitals. The large number of Indonesians infected with the Covid-19 virus caused hospitals to experience an increase in inpatient admissions, which accelerated the hospitals’ financial performance in a very short period of time. PT Mediloka Hermina, Tbk (HEAL) is a private hospital with the greatest number of branches in Indonesia, all of which are impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. This is also a positive sentiment among stock investors, as they perceive the health industry sector to have very promising future prospects. Several listed hospital company on the IDX have seen their share prices increase significantly over the past year, including PT. Mediloka Hermina, Tbk, whose share price increased by 197 percent between 23 March 2020 and 23 March 2021. This made the author curious about PT Mediloka Hermina, Tbk’s stock valuation and whether its shares are classified as overvalued or undervalued. This study utilizes secondary data obtained from the annual report of PT. Mediloka Hermina, Tbk as well as idx.co.id and stockbit.com, among others. The data was processed with the absolute valuation method (Discounted Cash Flow) and the relative valuation method (Relative Value) in mind (EV EBITDA and Price Earnings to Ratio). Using the Discounted Cash Flow model, the company’s intrinsic value is IDR 452.80 per share. It has a safety margin of -135 percent relative to the per-share market price of IDR 1,065 as of 31 December 2021. The intrinsic value per share is 688 IDR based on the relative price-to-earnings ratio and relative valuation EV EBITDA of 7.21. Following the evaluation procedure. The author may determine the relationship between HEAL’s fundamental company and its stock price growth.

The Financial Performance and Stock Valuation of Coal Mining Company in Indonesia (Case Study: Pt. Abm Investama Tbk (ABMM))

/in /by

Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier of coal, may profit from the uncertainties surrounding the present geopolitical situation. According to experts, the current high price of coal could be stable through the end of 2022, before declining moderately in 2023, but remain well above its five-year average. Therefore, investing in coal companies’ stock right now is a good idea. Theoretically, investing in the stocks of any firm whose primary business is in the coal industry will result in a profit. The issue is deciding which stock to purchase to increase the portfolio’s return. Value investing, often known as finding an undervalued firm with a great potential for growth, is the main goal of the research. The first step of this study is to observe the coal mining sector, and analyze the problem that occurs. Then, a simple screening valuation method using PBV and PER is conducted to choose the appropriate company to evaluate. Next, external factor analysis using PESTEL analysis and Porter’s Five Forces analysis is conducted. Afterward, internal factor analysis using Financial Ratios and F-Score is conducted to evaluate the problem that lies within the company. Finally, to summarize, SWOT analysis is conducted to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the company’s business environment that provide a thorough knowledge of the company’s competitive advantages. Furthermore, an absolute valuation method is carried out to produce the company’s intrinsic value. The financial performance of ABMM when viewed from its financial statement from 2017 – 2021 is strongly increased in 2021, but stagnant in 2017 – 2020. After obtaining the valuations result through three absolute valuation method, the normalized earnings valuation shows an upside of IDR 2,317 or  77%, the DCF valuation shows an upside of IDR 2,193 or 73%, and lastly, the Monte Carlo Simulation shows an upside of IDR 2,233 or 74%. Therefore, from all three method, ABMM current stock price is considered as undervalued. According on the findings, this study advises purchasing ABMM shares. The present stock price was found to be undervalued using three absolute valuation methods, which means that anyone who purchases the stock at the current price of IDR 3,000 will see a capital gain on their investment.

Financial Performance and Stock Valuation of Tobacco Company in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Amidst the Hike of Excise Tax Rate Period 2017-2021

/in /by

In the tobacco sector, there was a consistent decline in the price of shares outstanding during 2017 – 2021. The consistent decline in stock prices in the market in the tobacco sector initiated the author to analyze the financial performance condition of all companies in the tobacco sector and the stock valuation of companies with the best financial performance compared to other companies. So, it can be concluded that the market price position is now undervalued or still in an overvalued position to be the basis for making investment decisions. In this study, the financial performance of tobacco companies will be analyzed using the method of the decree of the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) or decree No. KEP-100 / MBU / 2002. This method will result in the health level status (Healthy, Less Healthy, Unhealthy) of each tobacco company each year in the period 2017 to 2021. Stock valuation in companies with the healthiest company predicate from the tobacco sector on the Indonesian stock exchange for the 2017-2021 period. The Stock Valuation that will be used is the absolute and relative method. In the absolute method, the researcher used the discounted cash flow (DCF) method and Dividend Discount Model (DDM). As for the relative method, the researcher used Price to Book Value (PBV), Price to Earnings Ratio (PER), and EV/EBITDA.

Based on PBV, PER, and EV/EBITDA, the intrinsic value of HMSP is Rp. 660.56, Rp. 1,093.53, and Rp. 1,104.57, respectively. DCF generates a result of IDR 1,301.35, and DDM gets IDR 1,375.53. Since only the PBV results reveal overvalued outcomes when compared to the market price, even though the share price is still Rp 915, it can be said that the market price of HMSP’s shares is undervalued. As a result, the researcher suggests investing in HMSP shares. The suggestion is being made because there is a chance for investors to profit from capital gains and dividends because the market price of HMSP is still undervalued in comparison to its underlying worth.