Title : The Road towards a Resilient Base Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia: A Transformative Scenario Planning Approach

Vol 5 No 12 (2022): Volume 05 Issue 12 December 2022

Article Date Published : 17 December 2022 | Page No.: 4607-4616 | Google Scholar | Crossref doi for this article

Abstract :

Petrochemical industry is a strategic industry for a nation because it has a big impact on society at large. Petrochemical derivative products are an inseparable part of our modern life. With the development of technology, humans can synthesize innumerable combinations of petrochemical molecular structures to obtain materials with certain properties suitable for the final products to be made, from clothing, packaging, pharmaceutical, households, etc. All these products are mostly produced based on six building blocks of petrochemical, which are ethylene, propylene, butylene, benzene, toluene, and xylene. They, collectively, are called base petrochemical. However, the chemical sector and its derivatives contributed to the Indonesian Current Account Deficit. In 2019, The Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics reported that imports of chemicals and goods derived from chemicals reached USD 21.51 billion. Meanwhile, the export activity of this sector was only USD 12.65 billion. Thus, The Government of Indonesia through the Ministry of Industry (MoI) pays special attention to the industry as stipulated in the National Industrial Development Master Plan (Rencana Induk Pengembangan Industri Nasional – RIPIN). RIPIN 2015, which is spanned between the years 2015 to 2035, is a guideline for the government and industry players in planning and developing the national industry. Considering the importance of the base petrochemical industry, this research was conducted to find plausible scenarios for the industry in Indonesia. The time horizon in this research is the year 2035 which is in line with RIPIN document. In obtaining possible scenarios, a literature review was carried out and followed by interviews with several relevant and competent sources. This research produced four scenarios namely “The Ruptured SBR”, “The Abandoned ABS”, “The Aromatic Painkillers”, and “The Flying Polyester”. The approach employed is a Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP) according to Adam Kahane’s work. This research does not focus on one particular entity or institution, but on the national basic petrochemical industry as a whole which consists of various stakeholders with different interests. So that in implementing the results of this research, it is important to realize that all parties need to contribute to achieve the desired future.

Keywords :

Base Petrochemicals, Petrochemical Industry, RIPIN 2015-2035, Scenario Planning, Transformative Scenario Planning.

References :

  1. Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003
  1. (2022, October 20). BPDPKS- ITB – Kemurgi Indonesia kenalkan bensin sawit di IPOS Forum Medan. Antaranews.Com. https://sumut.antaranews.com/berita/504549/bpdpks-itb-kemurgi-indonesia-kenalkan-bensin-sawit-di-ipos-forum-medan
  2. Ariteja, S. (2017). Demographic Bonus for Indonesia: Challenges and Policy Implications of Promoting Universal Health Coverage. Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 1(3), 265–274.
  3. BBC News. (2019, October 20). How plastic bags were supposed to help the planet – BBC News. Youtube.com. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQW5w9yAWgE
  4. go.id. (2015). FTA. https://www.beacukai.go.id/arsip/pab/fta.html
  5. Bennett, N., & Lemoine, J. (2014). What a Difference a Word Makes: Understanding Threats to Performance in a VUCA World. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2406676
  6. com. (2022, October 11). Jokowi Sebut Perang Ukraina-Rusia Berkonsekuensi pada Krisis. Beritasatu.Com. https://www.beritasatu.com/ekonomi/987605/jokowi-sebut-perang-ukrainarusia-berkonsekuensi-pada-krisis
  7. Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario Planning in Organizations: How To Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios.
  8. CNBC Indonesia. (2021, May 24). Butuh Duit Ratusan Triliun, Dana Jadi Masalah Klasik Kilang. Cnbcindonesia.Com. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20210524194334-4-248061/butuh-duit-ratusan-triliun-dana-jadi-masalah-klasik-kilang
  9. com. (2022, October 10). Ledakan Jembatan Crimea Dibalas Hujan Rudal Rusia ke Ukraina. Detik.Com. https://news.detik.com/internasional/d-6340605/ledakan-jembatan-crimea-dibalas-hujan-rudal-rusia-ke-ukraina
  10. Garvin, D. A., & Levesque, L. C. (2006). A Note on Scenario Planning.
  11. Guitarra, P. (2022, April 20). Produksi Minyak RI Anjlok Terus, Masih Ada Harapan Gak Ya? CNBC Indonesia. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20220420141024-4-333208/produksi-minyak-ri-anjlok-terus-masih-ada-harapan-gak-ya
  12. Hossain, K. B., Chen, K., Chen, P., Wang, C., & Cai, M. (2021). Socioeconomic Relation with Plastic Consumption on 61 Countries Classified by Continent, Income Status and Coastal Regions. Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, 107(4), 786–792. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00128-021-03231-6
  13. International Energy Agency. (2018). The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards more sustainable plastics and fertilisers. www.iea.org/t&c/
  14. Kahane, A. (2012). Transformative Scenario Planning – Working Together to Change the Future.
  15. KEMENKO PMK. (2022, August 2). Optimalkan Bonus Demografi, Agar Tak Terjebak di Pendapatan Menengah. Kemenkopmk.Go.Id. https://www.kemenkopmk.go.id/optimalkan-bonus-demografi-agar-tak-terjebak-di-pendapatan-menengah
  16. tv. (2022, February 21). Pemprov DKI Terima Aset Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Sampah Berkapasitas 700 KW dari BRIN. Kompas.Tv. https://www.kompas.tv/article/263564/pemprov-dki-terima-aset-pembangkit-listrik-tenaga-sampah-berkapasitas-700-kw-dari-brin
  17. Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2009). Scenario Planning – Revised and Updated: The Link Between Future and Strategy. In Scenario Planning – Revised and Updated: The Link Between Future and Strategy.
  18. (2022). Global Plastics Outlook: Economic Drivers, Environmental Impacts and Policy Options. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/de747aef-en.
  19. Our World In Data. (2021). Plastic waste emitted to the ocean, 2019. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/plastic-waste-emitted-to-the-ocean
  20. (2022, April 21). Pertamina NRE Pasok Energi Bersih 570 MW untuk Proyek GRR Tuban. Pertamina.Com. https://www.pertamina.com/id/news-room/news-release/pertamina-nre-pasok-energi-bersih-570-mw-untuk-proyek-grr-tuban#:~:text=GRR%20Tuban%20didesain%20dengan%20kapasitas,ini%20beroperasi%20pada%20tahun%202027.
  21. Pillkahn, U. (2008). Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development (Siemens Aktiengesellschaft, Ed.). Publicis Corporate Publishing.
  22. (2020). Oil and Gas in Indonesia: Investment and Taxation Guide, 11th Edition. www.pwc.com/id
  23. Ragusa, A., Notarstefano, V., Svelato, A., Belloni, A., Gioacchini, G., Blondeel, C., Zucchelli, E., de Luca, C., D’avino, S., Gulotta, A., Carnevali, O., & Giorgini, E. (2022). Raman Microspectroscopy Detection and Characterisation of Microplastics in Human Breastmilk. Polymers, 14(13). https://doi.org/10.3390/polym14132700
  24. Rahmad Fauzan. (2022). Ini Alasan UEA Ngotot Ekspor Bahan Baku Plastik ke Indonesia. Bisnis.Com. ttps://ekonomi.bisnis.com/read/20220608/257/1541303/ini-alasan-uea-ngotot-ekspor-bahan-baku-plastik-ke-indonesia
  25. Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic Reframing -The Oxford ScenarioPlanning Approach.
  26. Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2020). Emissions by sector. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector
  27. Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking (Vol. 36, Issue 2). http://mitsmr.com/1nJI6Qi
  28. Setneg RI. (2022, October 12). Stabilitas Ekonomi dan Politik Kunci Keberlanjutan Investasi. Setneg RI. https://www.setneg.go.id/baca/index/stabilitas_ekonomi_dan_politik_kunci_keberlanjutan_investasi
  29. Singh, N., Ogunseitan, O. A., Wong, M. H., & Tang, Y. (2022). Sustainable materials alternative to petrochemical plastics pollution: A review analysis. Sustainable Horizons, 2, 100016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.horiz.2022.100016
  30. Speight, J. G. (2019). Handbook of Petrochemical Processes.
  31. co. (2022, September 5). Pro Kontra Wacana Jokowi 3 Periode, Dianggap Lecehkan Konstitusi? Tempo.Co. https://nasional.tempo.co/read/1630828/pro-kontra-wacana-jokowi-3-periode-dianggap-lecehkan-konstitusi
  32. The World Bank. (2022, April 5). The World Bank In Indonesia. Worldbank.Org. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia
  1. Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.
  2. com. (n.d.). Historical Exchange rate. Wikimedia.Com.
  3. Yin, J. Z. (1994). Managing Process Innovation through Incremental Improvements: Empirical Evidence in the Petroleum Refining Industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 47(3), 265–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(94)90068-X

Author's Affiliation

   Tri Yudo Harisasono
School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

   Yos Sunitiyoso
School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

Copyrights & License

Tri Yudo Harisasono, Yos Sunitiyoso, 2022

This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Article Details

How to Cite :

The Road towards a Resilient Base Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia: A Transformative Scenario Planning Approach. Tri Yudo Harisasono, Yos Sunitiyoso , 5(12), 4607-4616. Retrieved from https://ijcsrr.org/single-view/?id=8266&pid=8124

Most read articles by the same author(s)

Tri Yudo Harisasono, Yos Sunitiyoso,

View

268

Citation

Downloads

Article Details