Title : The Road towards a Resilient Base Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia: A Transformative Scenario Planning Approach

Vol 5 No 12 (2022): Volume 05 Issue 12 December 2022

Article Date Published : 17 December 2022 | Page No.: 4607-4616 | Google Scholar | Crossref doi for this article

Abstract :

Petrochemical industry is a strategic industry for a nation because it has a big impact on society at large. Petrochemical derivative products are an inseparable part of our modern life. With the development of technology, humans can synthesize innumerable combinations of petrochemical molecular structures to obtain materials with certain properties suitable for the final products to be made, from clothing, packaging, pharmaceutical, households, etc. All these products are mostly produced based on six building blocks of petrochemical, which are ethylene, propylene, butylene, benzene, toluene, and xylene. They, collectively, are called base petrochemical. However, the chemical sector and its derivatives contributed to the Indonesian Current Account Deficit. In 2019, The Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics reported that imports of chemicals and goods derived from chemicals reached USD 21.51 billion. Meanwhile, the export activity of this sector was only USD 12.65 billion. Thus, The Government of Indonesia through the Ministry of Industry (MoI) pays special attention to the industry as stipulated in the National Industrial Development Master Plan (Rencana Induk Pengembangan Industri Nasional – RIPIN). RIPIN 2015, which is spanned between the years 2015 to 2035, is a guideline for the government and industry players in planning and developing the national industry. Considering the importance of the base petrochemical industry, this research was conducted to find plausible scenarios for the industry in Indonesia. The time horizon in this research is the year 2035 which is in line with RIPIN document. In obtaining possible scenarios, a literature review was carried out and followed by interviews with several relevant and competent sources. This research produced four scenarios namely “The Ruptured SBR”, “The Abandoned ABS”, “The Aromatic Painkillers”, and “The Flying Polyester”. The approach employed is a Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP) according to Adam Kahane’s work. This research does not focus on one particular entity or institution, but on the national basic petrochemical industry as a whole which consists of various stakeholders with different interests. So that in implementing the results of this research, it is important to realize that all parties need to contribute to achieve the desired future.

Keywords :

Base Petrochemicals, Petrochemical Industry, RIPIN 2015-2035, Scenario Planning, Transformative Scenario Planning.

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Author's Affiliation

   Tri Yudo Harisasono
School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

   Yos Sunitiyoso
School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

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Tri Yudo Harisasono, Yos Sunitiyoso, 2022

This work is licenced under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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The Road towards a Resilient Base Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia: A Transformative Scenario Planning Approach. Tri Yudo Harisasono, Yos Sunitiyoso , 5(12), 4607-4616. Retrieved from https://ijcsrr.org/single-view/?id=8266&pid=8124

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