Abstract :

Since the Paris Agreement where the countries in the world commit for the carbon emission reduction and net zero in 2050 or sooner, the energy transition has become the top topic in the energy sector. The oil-field services (OFS) industry is one of the business actors in the O&G supply chain with complex value chains, business structures, and models, and this research will explore scenario planning on the energy sector in Indonesia to have a forward-looking view of future O&G conditions in Indonesia including the energy transition which later became the key focal issue in this research. Scenarios are made based on the key driving factors and uncertainties that have been identified through the analysis of primary data from stakeholder interviews and secondary information from various literature studies. Furthermore, Scenarios are constructed based on how society responds to sustainable consumption and supporting infrastructures such as regulatory policies, the economic and investment environment, as well as technology and innovation. The four scenarios are (i) Empty Boat, (ii) Leaking Boat, (iii) Rocking the boat, and (iv) Rowing to Win. This research describes the implications, options, and strategies for each scenario which can then be taken into consideration by Green Bay Hornet Company (GBH) as an OFS company to enable proactive decisions and evaluate strategies to be resilient in each scenario. Reassessing the energy market, business conditions, and core competencies and how to expand and diversify technology, product, and service portfolios to renewable energy and decarbonizing initiatives in their operation is some of the strategies to expedite the transition in 2035.

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Keywords :

Energy Transition, O&G Industry, Oilfield Services, Scenario Planning

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