Abstract :
The stock valuation of PT Panca Budi Idaman, Tbk. (PBID), an Indonesian plastic packaging manufacturer, is evaluated using the absolute and relative valuation. The absolute valuation is based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. In relative valuation, PBID is compared to its peers, which in this study are IPOL, PDPP, and TRST. Indonesia’s significant economic growth and the vital role of the plastic industry are noting strong demand for plastic packaging despite environmental challenges and regulatory pressures. Financial performance from 2017 to 2023 is assessed through profitability, liquidity, and solvency ratios, demonstrating PBID’s efficient operations and robust financial health. Future cash flows are projected, discounted using PBID’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), and the terminal value is calculated. The intrinsic value is estimated at IDR 3,987 per share, indicating undervaluation compared to the current price of IDR 1,325 per share. Relative valuation compares PBID to industry peers using EV/EBITDA, P/E, and P/B ratios, reinforcing the undervaluation finding. Investment recommendations suggest PBID’s stock as a buying opportunity due to its strong market position and favourable valuation metrics.
Keywords :
DCF, Intrinsic Valuation, Packaging, PBID, Plastic, Relative valuationReferences :
- Agarwal, R., Brown, A., Cantrell, D., & Goyal, R. (2021, May 3). Ten ideas to unlock Indonesia’s growth after COVID-19. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/asia-pacific/ten-ideas-to-unlock-indonesias-growth-after-covid-19#/
- Alexander, J. (2020). Financial Planning & Analysis and Performance Management. Wiley.
- Anggalih, N. N. (2022). Analisis perbandingan kemasan berkelanjutan dengan berbahan dasar material alam. Nirmana: Jurnal Desain Komunikasi Visual, 22(1), 8-17. https://doi.org/10.9744/nirmana.22.1.8-17
- Azhari, M. R. (2024). Valuasi Saham PT. Samudera Indonesia Tbk., Masters’ Final Project, Institut Teknologi Bandung.
- Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Indonesia GDP Growth 2023. https://www.bps.go.id
- Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Indonesia Plastic Import 2023. https://www.bps.go.id
- Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Indonesia Population 2023. https://www.bps.go.id
- Berman, K., & Knight, J. (2020). Financial Intelligence, Revised Edition: A Manager’s Guide to Knowing What the Numbers Really Mean. Harvard Business Review Press. (ISBN: 9781422144114, Publication Date: February 19, 2013)
- Brealey, R. A., Myers, S. C., & Allen, F. (2020). Principles of Corporate Finance (13th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
- Brooks, A. L., Wang, S., & Jambeck, J. R. (2018). The Chinese import ban and its impact on global plastic waste trade. Science Advances, 4(6), eaat0131. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat0131
- Business Indonesia. (2023, January 24). Indonesia’s food packaging industry remains resilient. https://business-indonesia.org/news/indonesia-s-food-packaging-industry-remains-resilient
- Chalid, M. (2023, September 20). FTUI professor examines challenges and opportunities for the sustainability of plastic products in Indonesia. Universitas Indonesia. https://www.ui.ac.id/en/ftui-professor-examines-challenges-and-opportunities-for-the-sustainability-of-plastic-products-in-indonesia/#:~:text=Indonesia’s%20per%20capita%20plastic%20consumption,have%20sales%20value%20and%20benefits
- Damodaran, A. (2001). Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice. John Wiley & Sons.
- Damodaran, A. (2011). The little book of valuation: How to value a company, pick a stock, and profit. John Wiley & Sons.
- Damodaran, A. (2012). Investment valuation: Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
- Danareksa Research Institute. (2023, March 17). Plastic waste management and burden in Indonesia. https://www.danareksa.co.id/storage/2023/other/641444d08d734.pdf
- Dauvergne, P., & Islam, S. (2023, May 10). The politics of anti-plastics activism in Indonesia and Malaysia. Cambridge Prisms: Plastics. Cambridge University Press.
- Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). (2018, November). ASEAN packaging waste: An overview of packaging waste in Southeast Asia. https://www.giz.de/de/downloads/giz2018_ASEAN-Packaging-Waste_web.pdf
- Edina Energy & Environment. (2020, March 17). Study and Report on Regulating Plastic Bags. https://ehq-production-us-california.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/38ae34b6c8394965072a787c12c59568461d3dad/original/1678301097/a68e8e2c3835d1a33ae59301809435a1_2017_EEC_plastic_bag_report_update_317_PDF_3.pdf
- Ekval, C., Palm, D., Jönbrink, A.-K., & Larsson, M. (2020, April 11). Single-use plastic bags and their alternatives: Recommendations from Life Cycle Assessments. Life Cycle Initiative. https://www.lifecycleinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Single-use-plastic-bags-and-alternatives-Recommendations-from-LCA-final.pdf
- Greene, J. (2011, January 23). Life Cycle Assessment of Reusable and Single-use Plastic Bags in California. https://plasticsparadox.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Life-Cycle-Assessment-of-Reusable-and-Single-use-Plastic-Bags-in-California.pdf
- (2021, February 25). UNWRAP OUR EARTH: Public Perspective and Demand Toward Plastic Pollution Crisis in Indonesia. Greenpeace Southeast Asia. https://www.greenpeace.org/static/planet4-southeastasia-stateless/2021/02/865275d5-greenpeace-en-unwrap-our-earth.pdf
- Hagstrom, R. G. (2013). The Warren Buffett way. John Wiley & Sons.
- Housel, M. (2020). The psychology of money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness. Harriman House.
- International Pollutants Elimination Network. (2022, February 13). Plastic waste management and burden in Indonesia: Country situation report. IPEN. https://ipen.org/sites/default/files/documents/ipen-2021-indonesia-v1_1aw.pdf
- Koseoglu, S. D., & Almeany, S. S. (2020). Introduction to Business Valuation. In S. D. Koseoglu (Ed.), Valuation Challenges and Solutions in Contemporary Businesses (pp. 1-23). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1086-5.ch001
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2017, April 25). Annual Report of Panca Budi Idaman 2017. https://www.pancabudi.com/LapFinansial-Panca-Budi-ID.Aspx
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2018, April 27). Annual Report of Panca Budi Idaman 2018. https://www.pancabudi.com/LapFinansial-Panca-Budi-ID.Aspx
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2019, April 15). Annual Report of Panca Budi Idaman 2019. https://www.pancabudi.com/LapFinansial-Panca-Budi-ID.Aspx
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2020, April 29). Annual Report of Panca Budi Idaman 2020. https://www.pancabudi.com/LapFinansial-Panca-Budi-ID.Aspx
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2021, August 20). Public Expose Panca Budi Idaman (PBID) 2021. https://www.idx.co.id/id/berita/pengumuman
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2021, March 31). Annual Report of Panca Budi Idaman 2021. https://www.pancabudi.com/LapFinansial-Panca-Budi-ID.Aspx
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2022, April 11). Annual Report of Panca Budi Idaman 2022. https://www.pancabudi.com/LapFinansial-Panca-Budi-ID.Aspx
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2022, August 25). Public Expose Panca Budi Idaman (PBID) 2022. https://www.idx.co.id/id/berita/pengumuman
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2023, April 13). Annual Report of Panca Budi Idaman 2023. https://www.pancabudi.com/LapFinansial-Panca-Budi-ID.Aspx
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2023, April 13). Prospectus of Panca Budi Idaman. https://www.pancabudi.com/Pengumuman-Panca-Budi-ID.Aspx
- PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. (2023, June 23). Public Expose Panca Budi Idaman (PBID) 2023. https://www.idx.co.id/id/berita/pengumuman
- Rapp, D. J. (2017). Value investing’s compatibility with Austrian economics—truth or myth? Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 20(1), 52-66. https://doi.org/10.35297/qjae.010072
- SEA Circular. (2020, May). Country profile: Indonesia. https://www.sea-circular.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SEA-circular-Country-Profile_INDONESIA.pdf
- Septiono, A., & Ismawati, Y. (2022). Indonesia Waste Trade Updates: Focusing on Plastic and Paper Waste in Indonesia. Nexus3 Foundation.
- Shields, P. M., & Rangarajan, N. (2013). A playbook for research methods: Integrating conceptual frameworks and project management. New Forums Press.
- Simon, B. (2019). What are the most significant aspects of supporting the circular economy in the plastic industry? Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 141, 299–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.10.044
- Thompson, R. C., Swan, S. H., Moore, C. J., & vom Saal, F. S. (2009). Our plastic age. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 364(1526), 1973–1976. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0054
- Wang, Y., & Karasik, R. (2022). Plastic Pollution Policy Country Profile: Indonesia. Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University.
- World Economic Forum. (2020, May 17). Mengurangi Polusi Plastik Secara Radikal di Indonesia: Rencana Aksi Multipemangku Kepentingan. SYSTEMIQ. https://www.systemiq.earth/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NPAP_Indonesia_Action_Roadmap_BahasaLow-1.pdf