Title : Scenario Planning for Indonesia’s Alcoholic Beverage Industry in 2026: A Study Case from Company DORIA

Vol 7 No 1 (2024): Volume 07 Issue 01 January 2024

Article Date Published : 31 January 2024 | Page No.: 848-863 | Google Scholar | Crossref doi for this article

Abstract :

Indonesia has a small market for the alcoholic beverage industry due to its majority Muslim population. However, some data projected that the alcoholic beverage consumption level in the country will continue to grow until 2026, which opens the opportunity for the market to grow. DORIA is a multinational company dominating the global alcoholic beverage market. This MNC is planning to expand its business to Indonesia to capture the opportunity by proposing to become a local alcoholic beverage producer. However, due to Indonesia’s political and social conditions, DORIA faces several challenges in pursuing legal status as a local alcoholic beverage producer. There are only a few pieces of literature about the Indonesian alcoholic beverage industry that can be found. Thus, this research aims to give references for alcoholic beverage companies to help them develop their business strategies based on plausible scenarios of Indonesia’s domestic condition, including political and social situations, in the next three years using the scenario planning framework. Data used in this research is collected through interviews and literature study that will be analyzed using content analysis and qualitative coding analysis methods. By looking at the plausible scenarios, a set of business strategies, that more focus on the marketing strategy, can be recommended.

Keywords :

Alcoholic beverage, Indonesia’s alcoholic beverage industry, Scenario Planning

References :

  1. Aisyah, H. S., Munir, A., Zulkarnain, R. P., Djatmiati, T. S., Mazhuri, M., & Irianto, H. (2020). Legal protection of citizens: The alcohol beverages in licensing, taxation, supervision in Indonesia. Ashdin Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4303/jdar/236087
  1. Alcohol beverage prices – Country rankings. (2017). Retrieved from Theglobaleconomy.com: https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/alcohol_beverage_prices_wb/
  2. Aspinall, E., Fossati, D., Muhtadi, B., & Warburton, E. (2018, April 24). Mapping the Indonesian political spectrum. Retrieved from New Mandala: https://www.newmandala.org/mapping-indonesian-political-spectrum/
  3. Audrine, P. (2021). Policy reforms for safe online access to alcoholic beverages in Indonesia. Jakarta: CIPS Indonesia.
  4. Bonasera, G. (2021, July). HBR.com. Retrieved from How to Design an AI Marketing Strategy: https://hbr.org/2021/07/how-to-design-an-ai-marketing-strategy
  5. (2022). Statistik pengeluaran wisatawan mancanegara [Foreign tourists’ spending statistics]. Badan Pusat Statistik.
  6. Garvin, D., & Levesque, L. (2006). A note on scenario planning. Harvard Business School.
  7. Habibie, D. K., Kamil, M., Kurniawan, D., Salahudin, & Kulsum, U. (2021). Narrative policy framework: The role of media narratives on alcohol investment policy in Indonesia. Jurnal Moral Kemasyarakatan.
  8. Haraldsson, H. V. (2004). Introduction to system thinking and causal loop diagram. Lund: Lund University.
  9. (2022). 8 drivers of change for the global beverage alcohol industry in 2023. London: IWSR.
  10. (2020). Rencana strategis Kemenparekraf/Baparekraf 2020-2024 [Tourism and Creative Economy Ministry’s 2020-2024 strategic plan]. Jakarta: Kemenparekraf.
  11. Klaus, K. (2019). Content Analysis: An introduction to its methodology. Los Angeles: SAGE.
  12. Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2009). Scenario Planning: The Link between future & strategy . New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
  13. Mattaqin, A. A., Samsudi, M. A., Salleh, A. D., & Ahmad, A. A. (2022). Alcohol investment policy in Indonesia according to Maqasid Shariah.
  14. Nurasiah, Kusnafizal, T., Azis, A., Amalina, S. N., Zulfan, & Sakdiyah. (2022). Registration of geographic indicators of alcohol beverages from abroad in Indonesia.
  15. Purwowidhu, C. (2023, May 16). Kian melesat di 2023, pariwisata Indonesia bersiap menuju level prapandemi [Surging in 2023, Indonesia’s tourism ready to level back to pre-pandemic condition]. Retrieved from Mediakeuangan.kemenkeu.go.id: https://mediakeuangan.kemenkeu.go.id/article/show/kian-melesat-di-2023-pariwisata-indonesia-bersiap-menuju-level-prapandemi
  16. (2023, October 19). What you need to know about 2024 presidential election. Retrieved from Thejakartapost.com: https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2023/10/19/what-you-need-to-know-about-2024-presidential-election.html
  17. Sabandar, S. (2023, May 20). Ragam minuman alkohol khas Indonesia, tradisional dan legendaris [Indonesia’s traditional and legendary local alcoholic beverages]. Retrieved from Liputan6.com: https://www.liputan6.com/regional/read/5291693/ragam-minuman-alkohol-khas-indonesia-tradisional-dan-legendaris?page=2
  1. Said, A. A. (2023, January 6). Konsumsi naik, setoran cukai minuman beralkohol capai Rp 8 triliun [Consumption level increasing, alcoholic beverage tax excise deposit reaches Rp8t]. Retrieved from Katadata.co.id: https://katadata.co.id/agustiyanti/finansial/63b80b5264f70/konsumsi-naik-setoran-cukai-minuman-beralkohol-capai-rp-8-triliun
  2. Saldana, J. (2016). The coding manual for qualitative researches. London: SAGE Publication.
  3. Sangaji, R. (2021, Februrary 3). The beverages industry in Indonesia. Retrieved from Brightindonesia.net: https://brightindonesia.net/2021/02/03/the-beverages-industry-in-indonesia/
  4. Santika, E. F. (2023, May 31). Databoks.katadata.co.id. Retrieved from Nilai dan kontribusi sektor pariwisata terhadap PDB Indonesia/Tourism Direct Gross Domestic Product (TDGDP) (2016-2020): https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2023/05/31/membaca-nilai-ekonomi-pariwisata-dan-kontribusinya-terhadap-pdb-jeblok-karena-pandemi
  1. com. (2022). Gross domestic product (GDP) share of Indonesia in 2022, by sector. Retrieved from Statista.com: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1019099/indonesia-gdp-contribution-by-industry/
  2. com. (2023). Alcoholic Drinks – Indonesia. Retrieved from Statista.com: https://www.statista.com/outlook/cmo/alcoholic-drinks/indonesia#analyst-opinion
  1. Statistik, B. P. (2023). Konsumsi alkohol oleh penduduk umur ≥ 15 tahun dalam satu tahun terakhir (liter per kapita) [Alcohol consumption by population aged ≥ 15 years in one year (liter per capita]], 2021-2022. Badan Pusat Statistik.
  2. Total alcohol consumption per capita (liters of pure alcohol, projected estimates, 15+ years of age) – Indonesia. (n.d.). Retrieved from Data.Worldbank.org: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.ALC.PCAP.LI?locations=ID&name_desc=false
  1. Uddarojat, R. (2016). Negative effects on the proposed alcohol prohibition bill on safe and public health in Indonesia: Studies in six cities. Jakarta: CIPS Indonesia.
  2. (2022). GDP, PPP (current international $) – Indonesia. Retrieved from Data.worldbank.org: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?contextual=default&end=2022&locations=ID&start=2003&view=chart
  3. (2022, April 5). The World Bank In Indonesia: Overview. Retrieved from Worldbank.org: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/overview

How to Cite :

Scenario Planning for Indonesia’s Alcoholic Beverage Industry in 2026: A Study Case from Company DORIA. Fabiola C. Widianindya, Yos Sunitiyoso, Sahat Hutajulu , 7(1), 848-863. Retrieved from https://ijcsrr.org/single-view/?id=14888&pid=14318

Most read articles by the same author(s)

Fabiola C. Widianindya, Yos Sunitiyoso, Sahat Hutajulu,

View

144

Citation

Downloads

Article Details