Abstract :

Coal is a valuable natural resource that belongs to the Indonesian state and serves as a crucial raw material for fulfilling the country’s primary energy requirements. Starting from 2022, the Government has made a formal declaration to attain Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by the year 2060. Presidential Decree no. 112 of 2022 has been issued to expedite the development of renewable energy for electricity supply. One of the consequences of this decree is the discontinuation of coal-based power plants, reflecting the government’s dedication to transitioning to alternative energy sources in the future. Sindo Energy (SE) is a mining contractor services company that operates under the Indonesia Mining Alliances (IMA). It specializes in the coal industry and has a significant market share, contributing to a Gross Profit Margin of 93.43%. Naturally, projects that collaborate with SE are firms that own coal and so have the power to influence the overall business operations. This study aims to offer a comprehensive and enduring perspective on the potential future occurrences of scenario planning. The fundamental basis for creating the four scenarios, namely Believing Spirit (BS), Pioneer of Changes (PC), Truly Fighter (TF), and Chameleon Specialist (CS), involves identifying the major focal issues, driving reasons, and sources of uncertainty. This research outlines four scenarios that depict the projected industrial conditions in 2040. Each scenario presents different ramifications and possibilities, as outlined in the study. This research also generates pre-emptive indicators for SE business, which will subsequently prove valuable for corporations in formulating strategic measures that the company can adopt to confront potential situations in the face of future uncertainty, via implementation plans spanning a minimum of 15 years, in the upcoming year.

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Keywords :

Coal, Presidential Decree, Renewable Energy Development, Scenario Planning

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