Abstract :
Yogyakarta is one of the cities attracting significant foreign and local tourist attention with its beautiful city, culture, education, and traditional cuisine which prospered the hospitality industry in the city. However, since the pandemic Covid-19 hit the global economy in 2020, Hotel X Yogyakarta was also affected. The total occupancy room per year fell ten times lower than usual during the pandemic which jeopardized the business stability. Starting from preliminary interviews and SWOT analysis, this research aims to figure out what strategy needs to be implemented in Hotel X Yogyakarta to escalate the business and stabilize the occupancy room by using a quantitative methodology from a marketing and business analytic perspective. All data provided in this research is based on the internal data and information from the hotel, systematically calculated with Time Series Forecasting Theory using ARMA and ARIMA to provide a comprehensive forecasting result for business escalation strategy that is proposed to be implemented in Hotel X Yogyakarta.
Keywords :
ARIMA, ARMA, SWOT, Time Series Forecasting.References :
- Alkhafaji, A. (2003). Strategic management. Formulation, implementation, and control in a dynamic environment. New York: The Haworth Press, Inc.
- Alanzi, S. (2018, September). Pestle Analysis Introduction. Project Managing People in Projects, 2-26. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327871826_Pestle_Analysis_Introduction
- Alkhafaji, A. (2003). Strategic management. Formulation, implementation, and control in a dynamic environment. New York: The Haworth Press, Inc.
- Bateman, T. S., & Snell, S. A. (2004). The new competitive landscape (Sixth ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Boye, M., Ghafoor, A., Badar, H., & Ali, A. (2022, December). An Understanding of the Agripreneurial Knowledge and Motivation among Gambian Young Agripreneurs under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0. International Journal of Management Research and Emerging Science, 12(4), 36-57.
- Business Growth Hub. (n.d.). Growth Strategy – Ansoff Matrix.
https://www.businessgrowthhub.com/media/1067901/growth-strategy-ansoff-matrix.pdf
- Buye, R. (2021, February). Critical examination of the PESTEL Analysis Model. Project action research for development. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349506325_Critical_examination_of_the_PESTEL_Analysis_Model
- Cengiz, E., & Yayla, H. E. (2007). The Effect of Marketing Mix on Positive word of Mouth Communication: Evidence from Accounting Offices in Turkey. Innovative Marketing, 3(4).
- (n.d.). How to Use the Fishbone Tool for Root Cause Analysis. https://www.cms.gov/medicare/provider-enrollment-and-certification/qapi/downloads/fishbonerevised.pdf
- Czerwinski, P. (2021, December 6). Defining the Moving Average Model for Time Series Forecasting in Python. Towards Data Science. Retrieved February 7, 2023, from https://towardsdatascience.com/defining-the-moving-average-model-for-time-series-forecasting-in-python-626781db2502
- Dagmar, R. (2001). Porters 5 Forces. The Manager. http://www.themanager.org/Models/p5f.htm.
- Dimock, M. (2019, January 17). Defining generations: Where Millennials end and Generation Z begins. Pew Research Center. Retrieved February 10, 2023, from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/17/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins/
- Dinas Pariwisata Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. (2022). Statistik Kepariwisataan Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta 2021. Visiting Jogja. https://visitingjogja.jogjaprov.go.id/webdinas/download-category/statistik-pariwisata/
- Du, L., & Gao, R. (2022, April). Bayesian optimization based dynamic ensemble for time series forecasting. Information Sciences, 591, 155-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2022.01.010
- Francis, B. (2016). Ansoff Matrix in Your Pocket. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
- GHEMAWAT, P. (n.d.). Competition and Business Strategy in Historical Perspective. Business History Review, 76(01), 37-74.
- Gupta, H., & Nanda, T. (2015). A quantitative analysis of the relationship between drivers of the innovation and performance of MSMEs. International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 15(2), 128-157.
http://tudr.thapar.edu:8080/jspui/handle/10266/1990
- GÜREL, E. (2017, August). SWOT ANALYSIS: A THEORETICAL REVIEW. Journal of International Social Research, 10(51), 994-1006. 10.17719/jisr.2017.1832
- GÜREL, E. (2017, Agustus). SWOT Analysis: A Theoretical Review. The Journal of International Social Research, 10(51), 995. http://dx.doi.org/10.17719/jisr.2017.1832
- Hussain, S., Khattak, J., Rizwan, A., & Latif, M. A. (2013). ANSOFF Matrix, Environment, and Growth- An Interactive Triangle. Management and Administrative Sciences Review, 2(2), 196-206.
- Indonesian Central Government. (2020). PP No. 21 Tahun 2020 tentang Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar dalam Rangka Percepatan Penanganan Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [JDIH BPK RI]. Peraturan BPK. Retrieved February 9, 2023, from https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Home/Details/135059/pp-no-21-tahun-2020
- Investasi Pemerintah Kota Yogyakarta. (2012, November 5). Investasi Jogja Kota. Retrieved January 6, 2023, from http://investasi.jogjakota.go.id/en/more/page/70/Amazing-Tourist-Destination
- The Jakarta Post. (2020, November 29). Yogyakarta welcomes 1.7 million tourists in five months amid pandemic. The Jakarta Post. https://www.thejakartapost.com/travel/2020/11/29/yogyakarta-welcomes-1-7-million-tourists-in-five-months-amid-pandemic.html
- Jill, C. W. L., & Jones, G. R. (2007). Strategic Management Theory: An integrated approach (Seventh ed.). New York: Houghton Mifflin Company.
- Jones, P., & Comfort, D. (2020, September 3). The COVID-19 crisis and sustainability in the hospitality industry. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 32(10), 3037-3050. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-04-2020-0357
- Makridakis, S., & Hibon, M. (2000, October). The M3-Competition: Results, Conclusions and Implications. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 451-476. 10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00057-1
- Porter, M. E. (1980). Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors (Republished with a new introduction, 1998 ed.). New York: Free Press.
- THOMPSON, A. A., STRICKLAND, A. J., & GAMBLE, J. E. (2007). Crafting and Executing Strategy-Concepts and Cases (15th ed.). USA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
- THOMPSON, A. A., STRICKLAND, A. J., & GAMBLE, J. E. (2007). Crafting and Executing Strategy-Concepts and Cases. USA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
- Time series forecasting methods. (n.d.). InfluxData. Retrieved February 7, 2023, from https://www.influxdata.com/time-series-forecasting-methods/
- Yin, N. (2016, January). Application of AHP-Ansoff Matrix Analysis in Business Diversification: The case of Evergrande Group. MATEC Web of Conferences, 44(01006), 2-5. 10.1051/matecconf/20164401006