Scenario Planning Analysis for Commercial Housing Developer Company (Case Study: PT. TRIFECTA ADI PERKASA)

: Indonesia's Law no.1 (2011) necessitates the provision of affordable housing by the government, implicating both public and private sectors. Intermediate commercial housing enterprise, PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa, navigates such a mandate amid various unpredictable elements using scenario planning. This approach involves exhaustive external and internal analyses using PESTEL, Porter's Five Forces


RESEARCH DESIGN
This study employs a qualitative methodology to unravel the intricate subtleties associated with the dynamic real estate developer industry.As highlighted by Azungah (2018), such an approach enables in-depth analysis while dealing with limited data, thereby yielding a nuanced interpretation of the industry's complexities.The methodology strenghtens understanding of consumer needs leading to enhancement of service delivery and feature optimization.Working within the real estate industry involves confronting numerous unpredictable challenges, necessitating an in-depth understanding as suggested by Rothaermel (2017).Therefore, comprehensive internal and external evaluations become indispensable to accumulate profound industry insights.Given the ongoing flux in the Indonesian property market, sculpting diverse strategic blueprints is critical.Consistent with Rothaermel's (2017) tripartite schema of strategic management, encapsulating analysis, formulation, and implementation, this investigation presents a conceptual framework that fosters the cultivation of strategies aiming for persistent competitive advantage.

A. Management
This research categorizes interview criteria to understand the housing development industry's challenges and opportunities, leveraging expert insights to offer recommendations for addressing these challenges and seizing opportunities.

B. Customer
Through surveys and interviews, this research seeks to understand house-buying decisions, facilitating improved grasp of customer perspectives, optimizing company strategies, and thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty within the housing industry.
Post establishing respondent criteria, the researcher organized the interview questions as illustrated in Table 2.1.-What is the process of house searching like prior to making a decision to purchase a house?-What are the primary factors you prioritize when searching for a new home, such as location, size, price, amenities, etc.? -How significant is the proximity to schools, workplaces, or public transportation in your decisionmaking process?-Are there any specific features or amenities that you deem essential in your prospective new home?-What type of property are you specifically interested in, such as a single-family home, townhouse, condominium, etc.? -Are there any particular neighborhoods or areas that pique your interest?-How do you envision the property industry progressing in the upcoming five years?

SECONDARY DATA
Secondary data utilized in research may comprise qualitative or quantitative information.Qualitative sources include online media, articles, and publications, whereas quantitative data can be procured from statistical reports issued by government entities, statistical agencies, or other institutions.

DATA ANALYSIS METHOD
Within the scope of this study, the role of the researcher is to gather research data and supplementary tools (i.e., existing and prospective customer profiles, records, documents) to conduct thorough analysis.This entails data management and the identification of key patterns and trends to uncover insights and meanings pertinent to the research objectives.The investigation employs diverse research frameworks as outlined in Table 2.2 to inform the data analysis methodology.Often resonating with political intentions, these factors necessitate compliance with local and international regulatory standards.In summary, this PESTEL analysis delivers a thorough examination of external factors impacting PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa.Categorizing these determinants into political, economic, sociocultural, technological, ecological, and legal dimensions, the analysis presents a structured assessment of the complex macro-environment.This comprehensive exploration aids in discerning opportunities and challenges, enabling well-informed and strategic responses in Indonesia's dynamic real estate sector.

Porter's Fiver Forces
Several data sources and their competitive advantages are obtained according to the VRIO framework which can be seen below.The application of "Porter's Five Forces Analysis" in this study provides a detailed inspection of competitive elements shaping the Indonesian residential property industry, predominantly focusing on PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa.The analysis employs Michael Porter's esteemed model to methodically evaluate industry profit potential and formulate strategies to attain and sustain competitive superiority.

Threat of New Entrants:
The potential encroachment by new competitors into the industry could significantly impair its profitability.These adventurous enterprises might coerce incumbencies to reduce prices and boost spending to retain customer loyalty.A proper understanding of entry barriers is essential in gauging this threat.Factors such as economies of scale, network effects, customer switch over costs, capital requisites, brand fidelity, proprietary technologies, locational advantages, governmental policies, and an impactful threat of retaliation from incumbents significantly influence market entry feasibility.The influence wielded by suppliers within the real estate industry crucially impacts profitability.Dominant suppliers can escalate production expenses by intensifying input costs or diluting input quality and service levels.Indices augmenting supplier power comprise centralized supplier industry, insignificant dependency of supplier's revenue on buyer's sector, significant switching costs, differentiated supplier products, the unavailability of easily substituted products or services, and a credible threat of forward integration by suppliers.

Power of Buyers:
The negotiating leverage of buyers holds significant sway over industry profitability.Buyers might negotiate lower pricing or superior product standards, thus shaving company profit margins.Indicators enhancing buyer negotiation power include a small number of buyers making bulk purchases, uniform industry products, low switching costs, and a credible threat of backward integration.The influence of buying power varies in different industry scenarios.

Threat of Substitutes:
Substitute commodities or services fulfilling equivalent consumer requirements in diverse ways present a potential threat to industry profitability.The severity of this threat intensifies when substitutes proffer superior price-performance ratio and switching costs decrease.Scenarios include software alternatives to professional services and high-speed trains as an alternative to air travel.

Rivalry Among Existing Competitors:
The ferocity of rivalry among industry incumbents is tempered by factors such as threat of new entrants, power wielded by suppliers and buyers, and the potential threat posed by substitute products or services.Intense rivalry could lead to pricing discounts, thus diminishing profits.Alternatively, non-price competition might escalate costs but enhance profitability by adding unique product features.The rivalry intensity is contingent upon competitive industry structure, growth, strategic initiatives, and exit barriers.
Concluding, the implementation of Porter's Five Forces model in this chapter delivers a detailed comprehension of the competitive environment confronting PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa within the Indonesian residential property market.The analysis emphasizes the importance of these competitive forces in tailoring the company's strategic approach and stresses the necessity for an exhaustive understanding of industry dynamics to preserve a competitive edge.

SWOT Analysis
The chapter "SWOT Analysis of PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa" endeavors to conduct a methodical SWOT analysis.This strategic instrument assists in the in-depth evaluation of the enterprise's competitive status within the residential property industry of Indonesia.The analysis embarks on both internal and external attributes influencing the corporation, bestowing a data-centric comprehension of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Strengths:
Several intrinsic strengths, exhibited by PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa, serve to confer a competitive leeway.These encompass substantial capital resources, instrumental in efficacious operational implementation.Membership to the Real Estate Indonesia (REI) association equips the firm with a dynamic cognizance of regulatory scenes, augmenting strategic adaptability.Moreover, entrenched trust-bound consumer relationships contribute to an outstanding reputation, regarded as a critical asset within the real estate spectrum.Furthermore, secured alliances with financiers optimize financial operations, effectively stabilizing the corporation's financial situation.

Weaknesses:
Nevertheless, the corporation grapples with intrinsic weaknesses that curtail its performance and competitiveness.Possible weaknesses could entail resource constraints, operational inefficiency, market knowledge deficits, or technological constraints.Identifying and counteracting these weaknesses is imperative for ameliorating the corporation's market status and mitigating risks obstructing growth.

Opportunities:
The analysis unravels external opportunities procurable by PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa to fortify its market position and gain a competitive edge.These opportunities could surface from market trends, regulatory modifications, technological progress, or shifts in consumer inclinations.Exploiting these opportunities facilitates the corporation to amplify market penetration, inaugurate product innovation and consolidate its competitive superiority.On the contrary, external threats present formidable challenges to the institution.These may include soaring material costs, surging competition, legislative adjustments, market fluctuations, or shifts in consumer behavior.Meticulous recognition and preparation for such threats are essential for the corporation to secure its market standing and guarantee long-term viability.

SWOT Analysis Implementation:
The SWOT analysis's implementation necessitates identifying a precise goal, gathering resources, and formulating ideas for each SWOT category.The procedure spearheads conversations on internal and external elements converging on the conversion of these insights into operational strategies.The flexibility intrinsic to the SWOT analysis facilitates its adaptation to diverse business contexts and the capacitation from various data sources without substantial financial investment.
In conclusion, the SWOT analysis presented is a comprehensive assessment of PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa's industry positioning.
Emphasizing the organization's strengths and opportunities, it underscores the need to capitalize on these to solidify its competitive advantage.Simultaneously, the identified weaknesses and threats necessitate strategic attention to mitigate risks and elevate overall performance.This balanced scrutiny is pivotal for curating resilient strategies that synchronize with the corporation's milestones and the Indonesian real estate industry's evolving dynamics.

Analysis Summary
The meticulous examination of external and internal determinants is crucial for understanding the industry's present status and PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa's potential trajectory.Assessing these influences by categorizing them as controllable and uncontrollable factors is imperative.Employing SWOT analysis refines our comprehension, enabling the formulation of effective, dynamic strategies that balance technical expertise and creativity for business optimization.

Manageable
The classification of factors impacting PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa's operations reveals most as uncontrollable, posing significant managerial challenges.To address these intricate uncertainties and devise a robust sustainability strategy, extensive scenario planning analyses will be undertaken, addressing consequential findings.

BUSINESS SOLUTION
PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa, accentuating scenario planning analysis.The strategy augments the company's strategic decision-making capacity and bolsters its overall performance amidst an unpredictable, competition-intensive market.

Key Focal Issue and Exploration:
The central issue rests on safeguarding sustainability and ascertaining uninterrupted business success in the ensuing five years.A fastidious scenario planning methodology -identifying critical issues, driving factors, and uncertainties shaping the company's trajectory, is put forth.Scenario Planning Analysis: The scenario planning analysis unfolds over sequential stages, each offering distinct outputs: 1. Orientation: Establishes the strategic credentials to guide the scenario planning process.2. Exploration: Involves comprehensive research identifying driving forces and critical uncertainties impacting business operations, to comprehend the factors shaping future scenarios.The third phase of the Scenario Planning Analysis, entitled "Scenario Creation," as laid out in the document, signifies a pivotal juncture in the strategic planning progression of PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa.This phase concerns itself with the formulation of assumed future scenarios derived from determinant critical uncertainties.These formulated scenarios serve the pivotal function of casting light upon the prospective risks and possible opportunities that PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa might encounter in the future.

Elucidation of Crucial Uncertainties:
At the onset, the process necessitates the pinpointing of two primary critical uncertainties: namely, 'Governmental Regulatory and Policy Frameworks' and 'Present Economic Conditions.' Deemed as instrumental in molding the future landscape where PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa operates, these uncertainties were elected for thorough observation.The pinpointing of these specific uncertainties infers an encompassing comprehension of the exterior factors poised to leave a considerable impression on the company's business environment.Upon the identification of these crucial uncertainties, a 2x2 matrix is crafted, culminating in the generation of four singularly distinct scenario quadrants.Each quadrant epitomizes a one-of-a-kind synthesis of the potential states characterized by these uncertainties.This matrix is integral to the process of scenario creation, providing a formal structure instrumental in systematizing the envisioning of a multitude of future possibilities.

Formulation of Scenario Narratives:
The exploration of four consequential scenarios illuminates the varying economic potentials and impediments confronting PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa, a significant participant in Indonesia's residential property industry, in the ensuing five-year period.The scenarios, allegorically christened as "Sailing Prosperity's Winds", "Navigating Contrary Currents", "Braving Stormy Tides", and "Dancing with Dualities", illustrate the interplay between governmental policy and broader economic conditions."Sailing Prosperity's Winds" characterizes an optimal climate where both regulatory support and economic prosperity coalesce, generating an environment conducive to maximal growth and development.Thus, a prosperous economic state, mirrored in robust infrastructure and favourable government measures, could potentiate company growth, foretelling substantial profitability for PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa.In an oscillating climate, "Navigating Contrary Currents" encapsulates a future where regulatory support exists parallel to a contracting economy.In this bifurcated context, fiscal relief in the form of governmental tax incentives functions as a mitigating factor against reduced consumer purchasing power.Thus, success pivots on strategic resource allocation and skilled fiscal management."Braving Stormy Tides" envisages an austere scenario characterized by both rigid policies and a stagnating economy.Here, strategic preparedness and business resilience are paramount to survival.Despite potential governmental interventions, the firm's sustainability and survival rest heavily on its strategic dexterity and the astute navigation of an economically turbulent landscape.
Lastly, "Dancing with Dualities" presents a scenario demanding finesse and strategic adeptness despite the juxtaposition of stringent regulations amidst a booming economy.In this scenario, strategic agility, diversification, and adaptability are instrumental in securing organizational prosperity.In sum, these four scenarios underscore the significance of both governmental policy and economic climate in shaping PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa's trajectory.Consequently, strategic deftness, adaptability, and resource alignment with regulatory guidelines and market trends remain critical determinants of corporate success in the evolving landscapes of Indonesia's property sector.The primary objective of creating these set of scenarios is not to prophesize the future but to robustly equip oneself for it.By examining multiple potential results, the company can devise flexible strategies resilient enough to accommodate different future states.The scenarios assist in comprehending the repercussions of distinct strategic selections and in identifying preliminary indications of alterations in the business environment.

Integration into Strategic Planning:
The scenarios developed during this phase serve as invaluable assets to the organization's holistic strategic planning procedure.They impart crucial insights that inform decision-making, strategy development, and the allocation of resources.By anticipatorily acknowledging diverse future environments, PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa can optimally equip itself for uncertainties and leverage emerging opportunities.In summation, Stage 3: Scenario Creation is a constituent of paramount importance in the strategic planning procedure for PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa.It encompasses the systematic creation of future scenarios building upon critical uncertainties, thereby aiding the company in gearing up for a multitude of potential futures.This phase epitomizes a robust modus operandi to strategic planning, underscoring the immense significance of flexibility and preparedness in an unpredictable business atmosphere.
4. Option Consideration: Evaluates potential implications of each scenario and contemplates strategic reactions, by assessing the opportunities and challenges within each scenario and tailoring suitable strategies.

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
The implementation plan is conducted in accordance with the delineated scenarios.The tactical movements encompassed within this plan are derived from a comprehensive analysis of the investigation.The objective of the implementation plan is to enhance comprehension of uncertainty factors that influence all resolutions within each scenario.A detailed elucidation of the implementation blueprint for PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa is presented herein.

Sustainment of Operations and Administration
The justification for the proposed implementation strategy is predicated on the organization's amenability to recommendations concerning the individuals responsible for overseeing each operation.The appointed overseers are members of the corporate team.

RECOMMENDATION
This study recommends the application of scenario planning analysis and operational plans crafted by researchers, enabling the organization to further review the effectuation consequences, thus promoting ongoing progress.As for future research, the pursuit is to conduct a broad examination of strategies burgeoned from multiple authoritative sources.This academic venture strives to solicit sector-specific observations to grasp the intricacies of the difficulties encountered by real property developers.It is envisaged that the results obtained would catalyze the creation of an extensive strategic dissection for the corporation under consideration.
real estate landscape.Upon its implementation, the subsequent stage of this research entails the conceptualization and articulation of intricate scenarios.The final objective is to manufacture a holistic strategic roadmap, underpinned by the insights derived from the earlier stages.

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Given the uncertainty factor, what are the implications and potential alternatives available?-How do you envision the property industry evolving in the next five years?-What measures are you implementing to anticipate demand shifts for a variety of housing types, including affordable and sustainable development?-How do you evaluate the influence of economic, demographic, and environmental factors on the residential real estate market?-What are the primary uncertainties faced in the residential real estate development industry, and how do you intend to address them?Customer Optimize operations for cost reduction, concentrating on efficiency and productivity, ensuring profitability amid regulatory constraints 5. Integration: Incorporates the insights garnered from scenario planning within the overall strategic conceptualization, ensuring preparedness for varying future conditions and adaptability to environmental shifts.

Figure 2 . 3
Figure 2.3 Early Warning Signals for PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa

A
thorough exploration of internal and external factors, encompassing a comprehensive literature review, structured interviews, and administered questionnaires, yields the following insights: 1.The central issue, or key focal point, lies at the outset of scenario analysis planning.For PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa, the essential question is: "How can PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa secure sustainability and ensure continued business success in the next five years?" 2. Eighteen core determinants, classified into six categories, emerged from the comprehensive analysis of external and internal business dynamics: a. Policy: Regulatory and Policy Frameworks b.Supply-Demand Impact: Prevailing Economic Conditions, Availability of Land Resources c. People/Networking: Societal Characteristics and Demographics, Brand Awareness, Collaborative Interactions with Financial Institutions (Primarily Banks), Relations with Supply Chain Entities, Networks within Housing Associations d.Technology Development: Advancements in Information Technology, Evolution in Construction Technology e. Environment: Climatic Conditions and Weather Patterns f.Internal Capital: Availability of Capital Resources 3. Two predominant forces, characterized as critical uncertainties, emerge from the eighteen identified driving forcesgovernment regulation and policy and the prevailing economic condition.4. Based on these critical uncertainties, four potential scenarios have been meticulously formulated:  Scenario A: Sailing Prosperity's Winds -Representation of an optimal and favorable scenario  Scenario B: Navigating Contrary Currents -Emphasis on courage for innovation  Scenario C: Braving Stormy Tides -Formulation of strategies for organizational resilience during adversity  Scenario D: Dancing with Dualities -Deliberate caution in business innovation due to regulatory constraint

Table 2 .
1 Question List For Interview Key Person Questions Management -What is the company's background?-What obstacles does the company encounter in its operations?-How does the company maintain its relationships with its stakeholders?-What factors impact your current operations?

47191/ijcsrr/V6-i12-02, Impact Factor: 6.789 IJCSRR @ 2023 7433
PESTEL analysis offers an exhaustive evaluation of macro-environmental factors influencing PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa-an Indonesian commercial housing developer.This section is vital for grasping the company's broader operating context and pinpointing key drivers shaping strategic decision-making.PoliticalFactors: Politics and real estate development in Indonesia are closely intertwined.Factors like political stability, government policies, tax incentives, and foreign investment incentives affect housing prices, profitability, and market dynamics.Developers require a deep understanding of these elements to optimize success.Recent studies emphasize political factors' impact on Indonesia's residential real estate sector. Economic Factors: Macroeconomic phenomena, including growth rates, employment levels, real interest rates, price stability, and exchange rates, are vital to strategic decision-making processes, affecting profitability and planning.Strategic leaders must judiciously track and interpret these variables to effectively navigate local and international markets.
* Corresponding Author: Joshua Danke Hasian Volume 06 Issue 12 December 2023 Available at: www.ijcsrr.orgPageNo.7429-7448 3.1 ANALYSIS Adopting a qualitative research methodology, this study employs in-depth interviews and document analyses for data acquisition.Thematic analysis is subsequently applied to the data to discern critical themes and patterns.3.1.1PESTEL

Table 2 . 3
Categorization of Factors Affecting the Business of PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa ManageableISSN:

limits expansive marketing channels.
ISSN:

Table 2 . 5
Driving Forces Level of Impact

Table 2 . 6
Driving Forces Level of Uncertainty ISSN:

Table 2 .7 Critical Uncertainties
Develops a portfolio of hypothetical future scenarios rooted in the pinpointed uncertainties, to furnish a spectrum of potential futures, each with distinct attributes and implications.

Table 2 . 8
Implications and Options of Each Scenario ISSN:

Table 2 .12 13 Implementation
Plan of "Dancing with Dualities" Scenario

Table 2 .12 Justification
PT Trifecta Adi Perkasa, a development firm specializing in the construction of middle-range commercial dwellings, operates within the complex milieu of the property sector.This sector is subject to significant influences from external factors, including resource constraints, shifting market dynamics, demographic transitions, and evolving consumer behavior trends.Consequently, it is critical for the company to strategize effectively to navigate future uncertainties contingent on these elements.Scenario planning serves as a valuable methodology to prepare for such uncertainties.
5. Implications and corresponding options derived from each scenario include:  Sailing Prosperity's Winds: Enhanced Competition, Market Proliferation, and Improved Profit Margins.The options entail Developing Unique Propositions through Superior Housing Designs, Optimizing Data Collection for Land Acquisition, Expediting Housing Development, Enhancing Investment Strategy, Pursuing Higher Margins, and Minimizing Development Costs. Navigating Contrary Currents: Reduced Consumer Spending Capacity, Sales Underachievement, and Restricted Access to Capital Resources.Options focus on Utilizing Government Incentives for Affordability and Profitability, Partnering with Landowners for Mutual Benefits, and Implementing Prudent Financial Management Amid Downturns. Braving Stormy Tides: Decrease in Demand, Declining Trends in Property Values, and Examination of Alternative Sources of Revenue.Options to address these implications involve Managing Costs with Value Engineering, Optimization, Strategic Approach for Land Acquisition Opportunities, and Mitigating Risk via Revenue Diversification and Stable Cashflows. Dancing with Dualities: Impedimental Government Regulations (such as Zoning laws), Access to Credit Mechanisms, and Strategic Cost Management.Options include Diversifying Portfolio to mitigate Regulatory Risks, Seizing Opportunities in Luxury and High-Growth Sectors, and Enhancing Operational Efficiency to secure Profitability.