Business Growth Strategy of Personal Care Brand using VMOSA and Three Horizon Model (A Case of Evening)

: Evening, a mindful living personal care brand, seeks to overcome challenges in product innovation following the success of their Aromatherapy Eye Pillow. Despite having a loyal customer base, recent introductions like Scented Candles and Soap Bar have failed to gain significant traction. To address concerns about the product life cycle and ensure sustained growth and profitability, Evening conducted research using various analytical tools including RBV, Value Chain, PESTLE, and Porter 5 Forces. The findings were analyzed through the VMOSA framework to develop a vision and mission statement, and the Three Horizon Model was utilized to align objectives, strategy, and action plans. This integration allows Evening to balance current operations with future growth, fostering innovation, resource optimization, and alignment with long-term objectives. Analysis of Evening's current state indicates the need to explore new business opportunities as the current model becomes less effective. To attract customers seeking research-backed offerings and overcome competition in the oversaturated skincare industry, Evening must venture beyond small-batch products. The key areas for innovation identified are: 1) creating products and experiences catering to shared wellness activities and embracing slow beauty and slow living, 2) incorporating multisensory integration to enhance consumer well-being outcomes, and 3) embracing personalization and technology by leveraging AI-driven solutions. To implement this growth strategy, Evening should consider recruiting a business partner, collaborating with a marketing agency, and creating a portfolio of new business ideas.

• I. INTRODUCTION Now, more than ever, people around the world are interested in taking care of themselves and prioritizing overall well-being in their everyday lifestyle. The World Health Organization defines wellness as a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being, emphasizing the maintenance and improvement of one's health and quality of life. The wellness industry has been on the rise over the past few years, even before the COVID-19 pandemic. Dr. Bill Hetler, co-founder of the National Wellness Institute, developed the six dimensions of wellness models, including physical, intellectual, emotional, social, occupational, and spiritual 1 . Today's customers have integrated wellness-minded habits and activities into their lifestyle. The trend towards wellness is driving the emergence of various wellness-related business industries, ranging from alternative medicine, spas, and fitness to wellness tourism. As consumers' interest in wellness grows, so does their purchasing power. It is crucial for practitioners in the wellness industry to strategically optimize their businesses to stay competitive. Indonesia's beauty and personal care industry is a large and growing market that business owners, investors, and exporters should consider. It is projected to grow at a 5.4% CAGR from 2022 to 2026, making it one of the fastest-growing industries among consumer markets 2 . The cosmetics and skincare categories, driven by mobility recovery and the entry of younger consumers (Gen Z), are expected to be key growth drivers. Gen Z already accounts for approximately 25% of the Indonesian population, representing the largest consumer market base in Indonesia 2 . In terms of market segments, personal care is the largest with a value of $3.2 billion, followed by skincare at $2.1 billion, cosmetics at $1.7 billion, and fragrances at $0.4 billion 3 .
o I. 1

. Business Issue
Over its 6 years of operation, Evening has established a strong brand identity centered around mindful living. Their products promote a healthy lifestyle and have garnered a loyal customer base. Evening has achieved significant milestones and collaborations with other local brands, expanding their reach and increasing brand awareness. In 2020, Evening ventured into B2B sales, offering bulk • IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION o IV. 1

. Resource Based View (RBV)
Tangible resources are important to a business's success, as they provide the necessary infrastructure, resources, and assets to operate and grow. These are the physical assets that Evening owns according to internal data:

Physical Assets
Even though the business operates from the owner's house, these physical assets are still essential to the business: • Supplies: office supplies and shipping supplies • Inventory: Raw materials, work-in-progress and finished goods of the products, also packaging materials Evening divides the production process of its products into two, in-house and outsourced manufacture.
-For products that require chemical processes and many processes, Evening uses outside manufacturing services.
-For products that can be assembled without the need for special expertise, the production is done by in-house staff. Logistic Providers To manage the transportation of the products, Evening signs a seller membership with local courier service, SiCepat. The benefits are package pickup with no min. quantity, discounted rates and postpaid payments.
While intangibles are something that do not have physical form and cannot be touched or seen, intangible resources are also critical to a business's success, as they can provide competitive advantages and help businesses to differentiate themselves in the market. These are the intangible assets that Evening owns and earns according to internal data, desktop research and interview:

Intellectual Property
The Evening brand trademark is registered at the Indonesian Directorate General of Intellectual Property. These assets protect its products and brand identity for logo and brand name. As we can learn in Figure 4.1. Evening is recorded in the brand classification system number 3, namely cosmetics and other personal care needs related to beauty.

Reputation
• Evening is known not only as a skincare brand, even though it initially sold face masks, but as a brand focused on wellness. This brand perception has been formed through the wide range of wellness-focused products and also the consistent messaging that emphasizes the holistic and self-care aspects of the products.
• Customers perceive the product as effective and have good quality based on reviews and social media tags.
• According to an interview with Adhyra, a freelance content creator who Evening has had the pleasure of working closely with, Evening has outstanding product branding that is highly regarded in the market. The brand has timeless packaging design and aesthetic, combined with its commitment to wellness, has created a strong messaging that resonates with customers.
• Evening has also collaborated and established relationships with other local brands, further solidifying its reputation in the industry. From promotional collaboration to product and campaign collaboration. Evening has been recognized for offering unique and eco-friendly alternatives to traditional beauty tools. The Zero Waste Beauty Tools line from Cotton Pads, and Nail Polish Remover Pads have been well received by customers, providing a unique selling proposition for the brand. Actually, as we can see from the media feature Evening was the first to introduce reusable cotton pads to the Indonesian market in 2018. Followed by where Evening is able to differentiate themselves from competitors, this early innovation has since been followed by many other brands, highlighting Evening's influence towards more sustainable practices.
Furthermore, the Aromatherapy Eye Pillow has proven to be a hit among young people, providing a solution for relaxation and stress relief. The product's unique blend of aromatherapy scents has been well received, its success highlights the brand's ability to identify emerging market trends.

Customer Loyalty
• Evening has managed to create a strong customer loyalty through their products, from the rating and reviews on Marketplace. As many customers have become repeat buyers, purchasing products not only for themselves but also as gifts for their loved ones.
• Customers tag Evening in their social media posts showcasing their purchases and sharing positive reviews . This has helped increase brand reach and attract new customers through word-of-mouth.
• According to Adhyra, the freelance content creator that manages Evening social media, customers are well-engaged with Evening's content. Adhyra often creates interactive content that receive frequent replying, and audiences are resharing Evening content to their story, further increasing brand awareness.
• In the brand's early days, Evening has built intimate relationships with micro-content creators that some now have become big influencers. They have continued to support Evening through social media interactions and collaborations when a new product launches.

Distribution Network
Evening has a relatively small distribution network offline that includes four stores via consignment sales located in Jakarta, Tangerang, Bandung, and Surabaya. However, the brand's main distribution network is through Tokopedia and Shopee, Indonesia's top online marketplace, making its products accessible to customers all over Indonesia.

A. Primary Activities o
Inbound Logistics: Evening sources its materials from local producers and suppliers through online orders, ordering materials online can save Evening time and streamline the ordering process. Sourcing materials from local producers and suppliers help Evening reduce transportation costs, minimize lead times, and support the local economy. By sourcing materials locally, Evening can also ensure that the quality of the materials meets its standards. o Operations: As a one-woman business, there is a challenge of managing multiple responsibilities by the sole owner and operator of the business. Evening faces limitations in terms of time, energy, and expertise, which impact the overall efficiency and effectiveness of the operations. For instance, handling product development, production, packaging, shipping, customer service, and marketing activities all on her own result in a heavy workload and potential burnout. o Outbound Logistics: Evening places a high emphasis on maintaining the quality of its products. As a small batch producer, Evening may have limited resources and need to rely on a combination of visual inspection, sensory evaluation, and customer feedback to ensure product quality. Marketing and Sales: Evening sells its products through both online marketplaces and offline consignment. This allows the business to reach a wider audience and diversify its sales channels. Evening collaborates with other brands from all related or unrelated industries to raise awareness and gain new customers. Collaborations have been made with cosmetics, fashion labels, coffee shops, fashion retailers, skin care, and online media. Service: Evening's products are unique and suitable for gifts. To enhance the gifting experience, Evening offers gift wrapping services to customers. Customers can add a custom message to be included with the gift, adding a personal touch to the gift-giving experience. The gift is then nicely packaged and ready to be sent to the recipient, ensuring that the gift arrives in a presentable manner. Evening also gives product samples or merchandise as compliments to customers with repeat orders and expensive purchases. This is a great way to show appreciation to loyal customers and incentivize them to continue purchasing from the brand. B. Support Activities Firm Infrastructure: With Evening being a one-woman business, formal organizational charts may not be necessary. However, a lack of a clear job desk and responsibilities result in confusion and difficulties in managing operations efficiently. The absence of a formal organizational structure leads to challenges in delegating tasks and accountability. Procurement: Evening orders raw materials and supplies in bulk from local producers and suppliers. But, as a small business, Evening does not have the bargaining power to negotiate strategic partnerships with suppliers like longer payment terms or lowest possible price, but it still get discounts for bulk purchases. Technology Development: Evening's technology development analysis reveals that the brand does not require investments in new technologies or equipment regarding its manufacturing processes for its current products as they are manually made. This suggests that Evening's manufacturing process is not complicated and does not require significant technology advancements. Human Resources Management: Evening hires freelancers as their content creators to support their marketing efforts. This approach allows for flexibility and cost-effectiveness, as the founder can outsource specific tasks to freelancers as needed. The founder works closely with freelancers to ensure they understand the brand values and tone. o IV.3. PESTLE Political: Government policies and regulations can significantly impact the beauty and wellness industry 4. The Indonesian government recognizes the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration for the development of the pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and herbal medicine industries 4 . Additionally, the upcoming 2024 election in Indonesia holds significance for the country's economic potential to become the 7th largest economy in the world by 2030 5 . Elections every five years require substantial funds, which can impact various industries, including printing, textiles and clothing, transportation, telecommunications, hotels, food, as well as creator services, influencers, and advertising 6 . Economical: According to Minister Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno, wellness tourism plays a crucial role in the recovery of the tourism and creative economy sectors, both nationally and globally 7 . During the "International Wellness Tourism Conference and Festival (IWTCF) 2022" in Solo, Indonesia, Minister Sandiaga acknowledged the challenges faced by the industries due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, he highlighted the growing interest in travel, especially in wellness tourism, as health has become a new lifestyle trend. Minister Sandiaga expressed confidence in the resilience of the wellness industry and emphasized its importance in the recovery of the national and global tourism sectors 7 . Social: According to the "2023 Global Wellness Trends Report: The Future of Wellness" by Beth McGroarty 8 , the wellness market has shifted from individualistic "me time" products to a focus on shared experiences. The pandemic has been a catalyst for this shift, leading to the emergence of new spaces and experiences that prioritize real-life social connection. The wellness industry now emphasizes teaching deeper connection and empathy. In an interview with Nadya, an industry expert and founder of the beauty brand 'ByTheBeau,' it was revealed that consumer preferences are no longer limited to gender or specific age groups. Consumers are now grouped based on shared lifestyles and interests. The rise of genderless skincare campaigns has increased male interest in facial health and experimentation with skincare products. ByTheBeau, while maintaining a feminine approach, has attracted male customers through word-of-mouth recommendations, resulting in repeat purchases 9 . From a business owner perspective, there's a changing demographics of the beauty and personal care industry. it is evident that the largest market segment is currently the Gen Z customers. Gen Z consumers prefer brands that are authentic, relatable, and avoid content that feels overly manufactured or insincere. In terms of marketing and branding, they value a natural approach. Gen Z consumers value inclusivity and solidarity as important issues. Technological: The use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning is significantly impacting the beauty and personal care industry. AI enables personalization, process automation, augmented decision making, and digital supply chain networks 10 . This includes the growing trend of personalized products tailored to individual skin conditions and the offering of knowledge-based beauty routines. The combination of the 4th Industrial Revolution, big data, and personalized cosmetics is expanding the beauty self-care market focused on individual consumers 11 . Companies are investing in online channels and developing mobile apps to enhance consumer connections, simplify purchases, and provide personalized recommendations. Legal: According to Kominfo 12 , Minister of Cooperatives and Small and Medium Enterprises (MenkopUKM) Teten Masduki emphasizes the growing demand for wellness products globally, and Indonesia's potential as a source due to its biodiversity. However, MenkopUKM emphasizes the importance of producing products correctly, meeting high standards, and adhering to specific standardization when entering foreign markets. The focus should not solely be on the local market. This aligns with the Global Wellness Summit's report mentioned in Jessica Smith's 8 "2023 Global Wellness Trends Report: The Future of Wellness." The report indicates a shift in the beauty industry from "clean beauty" to science-backed products, emphasizing education, transparency, and results-driven technologies. The beauty and wellness industries can leverage science and technology to reshape consumer perceptions, secure supply chains, and drive innovation. o Environmental: Consumers increasingly prioritize eco-friendly and sustainable beauty products, driving the demand for "green" beauty, particularly in skincare. Brands are promoting terms like recycled, biodegradable, and eco-friendly to meet this demand. However, the beauty industry is also witnessing the emergence of fast beauty, characterized by an oversaturated market and unsustainable practices. Sustainability concerns related to cosmetics safety, environmental impact, and social issues have further fueled this focus 13 . It is crucial to address misconceptions surrounding synthetic and nature-based ingredients to ensure informed decisions about sustainability in cosmetics.

o IV.4. Porter's 5 Forces A. Threats of New Entrants -High
The threat of new entrants in the niche personal care industry is high due to the small batch production and the easy availability of ingredients for product manufacturing. The nature of Evening products being produced in small batches allows for relatively low barriers to entry, as new entrants can start with small-scale production without significant upfront capital. Many natural ingredients used in Evening products also can be sourced from various suppliers, making it accessible for potential entrants to acquire the necessary materials for production. This accessibility reduces the dependency on a limited number of suppliers and lowers the barriers to entry. This increased competition puts pressure on Evening to differentiate themselves through product quality, innovation, branding, or other factors to maintain their market position.

B. Bargaining Power of Suppliers -Moderate
The bargaining power of suppliers in the niche personal care industry can be considered as moderate. The increased awareness of healthy natural ingredients has led to a growing number of suppliers, especially local suppliers specializing in providing such materials. Therefore, Evening brands have the flexibility to switch suppliers which offer similar raw materials. C. Bargaining Power of Buyers -High Meanwhile, the bargaining power of buyers in the niche personal care industry is high due to several factors. One factor contributing to the high bargaining power of buyers is the decreased interest in "all-natural" claims. While natural ingredients were once a significant selling point for Evening products, customers are now more open to the use of scientifically-backed ingredients, including those with chemical compositions. This change in consumer mindset has created a demand for products that are supported by research and scientific findings. Moreover, the high availability of alternative niche personal care brands contributes to the high bargaining power of buyers. With numerous options in the market, customers have the freedom to switch brands if they find more appealing alternatives. This variety gives buyers the ability to influence pricing and consider overall customer experience through their purchasing decisions.

D. Threat of Substitutes -Moderate
The threat of substitutes for Evening brand is moderate. In the context where some of the Evening products, such as their therapeutic Eye Pillow, are unique and currently have no direct competition, the threat of substitutes may be relatively low. Since there are no exact substitutes available in the market that offer the same product features and benefits, customers may not have immediate alternatives to choose from. However, it is crucial for Evening to be aware of these potential substitutes and their impact on customer choices. For example, customers seeking relaxation or stress relief may consider buying alternative products such as scented candles or other relaxation tools. While these substitutes may not directly replicate the therapeutic effects of the Eye Pillow, they can still provide some level of relaxation and contribute to overall well-being.

E. Competitive Rivalry -Moderate
The competitive rivalry for Evening is considered Moderate. While it is true that there are currently no direct competitors offering a similar range of products as Evening, the presence of competitors selling either skincare products or scented candles can still contribute to competitive rivalry. Evening's unique range of products sets them apart from competitors who focus solely on skincare or scented candles. This differentiation helps Evening establish a distinct market position and attract customers seeking a holistic approach to personal care. However, competitors may attempt to replicate or imitate by introducing similar or alternative products in the future. This can intensify rivalry and create a more competitive landscape for Evening.

. Business Solution
As the first element of VMOSA, the researcher must craft a compelling vision statement that embodies the aspirations and values of the company. A well-defined vision acts as the guiding light for any organization, providing a clear direction and a shared sense of purpose. From the internal analysis, Evening aims to become a trusted companion on the journey to unwind and rejuvenate, offering a sanctuary of self-care rituals that promote inner peace and serenity. By analyzing the future demands and market trends, Evening must be tapped into making wellness approachable and inclusive, ensuring that everyone can embark on their personal wellness journey, regardless of their gender, background or circumstances. By fostering a supportive and inclusive community, Evening aspires to inspire and educate their customers, encouraging them to embrace everything that nourishes their mind, body, and spirit. In summary, the vision statement for Evening is: Vision Enabling all-around wellness that is approachable and accessible.

Mission
At Evening, our mission is to help individuals unwind and find balance amidst the demands of modern life through a range of innovative and sustainable products and services that promote holistic well-being and self-care.
To align the VMOSA tool with the Three Horizon Model, three objectives will be established to target different areas over specific timeframes: expanding the core business, exploring future opportunities, and driving transformative changes for emerging businesses. Through a thorough analysis of Evening's resources, value chain, competition, and PESTLE factors, it is evident that the brand needs to venture into new business opportunities. The Three Horizon Model supports this approach, highlighting the importance of innovation for a sustainable future when the current business model becomes less effective. To attract customers seeking research-backed offerings, Evening must move beyond small-batch products and avoid contradicting its sustainability commitment by engaging in mass production in an already oversaturated skincare industry. Instead, the brand should focus on a new business venture that addresses customer needs, emphasizing social community and inclusivity for industry success. To increase market share and revenue growth of Evening's existing product lines.

Horizon 2 (6 month-1 year)
To create an environment that supports and facilitates the emerging of new business opportunities.

Horizon 3 (1-2 year)
To establish new business ventures that have growth potential within the next 1-2 years while aligning with Evening's mission.
To achieve the outlined objectives, specific strategies are required. In Horizon 1, Evening should focus on expanding market share and increasing revenue for its existing products. This can be accomplished by expanding distribution channels both online and offline, reaching a wider customer base. Simultaneously, targeted marketing campaigns should be implemented to enhance brand visibility. Moving to Horizon 3, the objective is to generate new product and service ideas. Evening can allocate resources for market research to identify untapped niches in the beauty and wellness industry. To support these objectives, strategic initiatives within Horizon 2 are essential. This includes creating an environment that fosters the development of new ventures. Establishing an internal team dedicated to innovation and actively seeking investment opportunities can facilitate the growth of innovative ideas. The strategies for each horizon are as follows: Enhance promotional activity and distribution channels through targeted marketing campaigns and retailers.
Horizon 2 (6 month-1 year) Seek strategic partnerships for new business ideas and investment opportunities to accelerate growth and diversification.

Horizon 3 (1-2 year)
Conduct market research and analysis to identify emerging trends, consumer demands, and untapped niches in the beauty and wellness industry.
Based on the strategies outlined above, specific and actionable action plans are required within the designated timeframes. The detailed action plans are as follows: There are multiple action plans within each horizon. Horizon 1 action plans focus on strengthening distribution channels and enhancing promotional activities. This includes identifying new retail partners, establishing promotional partnerships, seeking external marketing expertise, and launching targeted marketing campaigns. In Horizon 2, the action plans involve assessing Evening's resources and financial position, developing a funding proposal, researching potential funding sources, and engaging in investor relations. Lastly, in Horizon 3, the action plans revolve around establishing new ventures in untapped niches. This includes forming a dedicated team, conducting customer research, analyzing trends, developing potential offerings, testing and refining the offerings, creating a strategic marketing plan, and ultimately launching the new products or services. However, these plans do not need to be executed sequentially within the designated timeframes. Instead, action plans from Horizons 2 and 3 can begin in Horizon 1, alongside other plans, allowing for parallel progress. This approach enables the achievement of both short-term and long-term goals.

• V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION o V.1. Conclusion
Evening's success and reputation in the niche market can be attributed to key factors such as wellness focus, strong branding, collaborations, eco-friendly offerings, customer loyalty, media recognition, and alignment with consumer values. The brand's positioning as a holistic wellness brand, along with a diverse range of wellness-focused products, reinforces its reputation. The effective product branding and timeless packaging design contribute to attracting premium customers. Collaborations with local brands have expanded Evening's reach and solidified its industry recognition. Furthermore, the brand's ability to identify emerging market trends is evident in products like the Aromatherapy Eye Pillow. Strong customer loyalty is demonstrated through repeat purchases and positive reviews, while social media engagement amplifies brand reach through word-of-mouth. Evening can innovate in three key areas to adapt to evolving consumer preferences. Firstly, the brand can create shared wellness experiences through collaborations, group treatments, and community-focused products. This promotes a sense of togetherness and shared self-care. Secondly, Evening can incorporate multisensory integration in their products, engaging multiple senses simultaneously to enhance the wellness experience. This can be achieved through products like Aromatherapy Diffusers or virtual reality meditation. Lastly, Evening can embrace personalization and technology by integrating AI-driven personalization into their offerings, tailoring solutions to individual preferences and needs. By focusing on these areas, Evening can meet the changing demands of consumers and enhance their overall wellness experience. To effectively implement the proposed business growth strategy, the first step for the one-woman-run business founder is to recruit or hire a business partner and collaborate with a marketing agency to allocate tasks. This will enable the founder to focus on activities that support business growth, such as generating high-profit business ideas for Horizon 3. As the business as usual becomes more established in Horizon 1, the newly formed New Venture Team can create a portfolio of well-researched new business ideas and seek investment opportunities to support the capital requirements in Horizon 2. Consequently, within the next 1-2 years, Evening can launch new branches of the business that generate greater profits and ensure their sustainability through new product or service offerings.

o V.2. Recommendation
The recommendations for the company are to implement the formulated business growth strategy and implementation plan. During the first horizon, it is crucial for the company to regularly review and update the distribution strategy and marketing plan to align with evolving customer preferences. In order to pursue the second horizon, the company should continuously evaluate and refine the portfolio of new business ideas based on internal capabilities and strategic alignment. Lastly, when executing the third horizon strategy, it is important for the company to regularly assess the market reception of the new offerings and make necessary adjustments based on feedback and market dynamics.
Conducting competitor analysis to understand their strategies and offerings will provide valuable insights for developing innovative products and marketing strategies for further research. Also, continuous market adapting to changing customer dynamics. This can be achieved through in-depth market analysis and consumer research to identify emerging trends, preferences, and demands.