Democracy in Lebanon-Challenges and Prospects

Democracy refers to the rule of the people. It is a system of representational government wherein people have the right to determine their social, economic and political course. Over the past centuries and decades, as the world has been embracing democracy, as a political ideal, some parts of the globe lag behind. Middle East, with its unique history and geographic importance being one among them; remains the center of discussion. Within the Middle East itself, Lebanon enjoys a very special position; not only for geo-political and economic reasons, but more so for its peculiar demographics. Divided among 18 recognized confessions, Lebanon offers a rich blend of fracture and unity. It is this mix of a small yet diverse society, limping its way towards an inclusive and successful polity that has been put to light in this paper. With its internal nuances and external flavors; Lebanon offers a test for the metal of democracy. The challenges it has and is still facing, and the prospects it enjoys for the future have been delved in this essay.

If one analyses the Taif agreement, one can feel the subtle way it deals with contending issues; like political demarcation, the Lebanese army and Syria. As a well crafted agreement; it did bring an accord among the contending parties. Lebanon has seen somewhat fair elections and governments, but a completely unified Lebanese entity still remains elusive. Fawwaz Traboulsi goes at length to analyze the agreement, The Document of National Understanding adopted in Ta'if had envisaged a solution to the Lebanese crisis in two stages. The Second Republic it gave birth to was to lead to a Third Republic in which political sectarianism would be abolished. Article 95 was modified to commit the first elected Parliament to create a special council forthat purpose, without fixing a time limit for the achievement of the abolition. The Third Republic, liberated from political sectarianism, would be inaugurated by the election of a non-sectarian Parliament. The sects, would be represented in a Senate similar to that of the 1926 constitution, which would have a decisive vote on issues of a national character. However, the council for the abolition of sectarianism is yet to be created, faced with open opposition of the Christian leaders and tacit opposition from the rest of the sectarian leaders.
He continues, In practical terms, the Ta'if regime reproduced the sectarian system, but with a sizeable modification in the balance of power among its constituents. To begin with, parity between Christians and Muslims replaced the previous 6:5 ratio in the distribution of Parliament seats, which were increased to 128, and of cabinet portfolios. In addition, sectarian quotas were abolished in civil service posts, the judiciary, the army and the police. The only exception to this was 'degree one' posts, that is, the general directors of ministries, where a system of parity and rotation was to be applied so no degree-one post would be reserved for a specific sect. More importantly, the prerogatives of the president of the republic were severely curtailed in favour of the prime minister, the cabinet, and the Parliament and its speaker, all confirmed in their representation of the Maronite, Shi`i and Sunni sects respectively.
Summarizing the result of the accord, he says, In that sense, the Ta'if Agreement merely created another system of discord. (Traboulsi, 2007)  The other event came in May 2008, when government ordered the seizure of Hezbollah's internal telecommunications system, prompting Hezbollah to take over central Beirut. The government and its forces could not do much, while Hezbollah appeared to be stronger than the national army. An agreement was eventually signed in Doha, to resolve the issue. Hezbollah translated a military victory into a political one. It withdrew from West Beirut, in exchange for enough seats in the government to veto any unilateral decision by the March 14 alliance (Pelham P. M., 2019). What is worth noting is that though the confessional system has fixed the fault lines, the fixation has been makeshift. For a Lebanon that is both democratic and prosperous, a unified Lebanese identity has to be created, to which the present set-up seems to be a hindrance.

INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL ACTORS
While conversing about Lebanon, one can neither wish away local nor foreign actors. As we discuss Lebanese democracy, it is not only the politics within the borders of Lebanon that matters, but beyond the borders as well. Staring with Syria, out of whose body politic Lebanon was drawn out, has ever since being a major factor in Lebanese politics. Syrian army in the past has been in Lebanon, only to be withdrawn after the Cedar Revolution (Bahout, 2016). And still, the Syria civil war has spilt over its borders in Lebanon; not only in military terms, but also the million or so refugees, who had to be somewhat accommodated in a country with a population of less than 5 million. The Syrian civil war has also somewhat divided Lebanon, with Hezbollah whom most Lebanese have usually considered a legitimate resistance against Israel (Chuciar, 2006) taking active side with the Syrian regime. Though many, especially among the Shias, still consider Hezbollah to be a resistance force, their involvement outside of Lebanon, has created a serious dent to their support base inside and outside of Lebanon. Muslims countries where its popularity was very high, has witnessed a steep decline; after its support for the Assad regime (Norton, 2007). Hezbollah which owes existential help from Iran and Syria (Sousa, 2014) in itself has evolved over the years, from just an uncompromising revolutionary militia, to a democratic and welfare political party (Sousa, 2014)a transition that can be clearly seen from the uncompromising 1985 Open Letter to the 2009 Strategic Manifesto (Norton, 2007). Hezbollah is no more just a revolutionary, idealistic militia, but a body that is involved in every aspect of the Lebanese society.  Besides Saudi Arabia, Israel and USA are also important players in the geo-political chessboard of Lebanon. Lebanon has witnessed a brutal occupation and invasion of its territory by Israel -which is the raison d'être for the existence of Hezbollah in the South. But, over the last decade, with Israel vacating South Lebanon and both sides showing willingness to delineate its maritime borders, peace can be expected in the long runthough popular sentiment in Lebanon is still very much against Israel and its policies. In case of USA, the report card isn't either filled with stars. Lebanese, to say the least, take USA with a pinch of salt. The traditional US support for Israel has had few takers in Lebanon. Especially, with Israel invading and occupying Lebanon, and helping perpetrate massacres like the one in Sabra and Shatila (Baylouny, 2009). But at the same time, Bilal Y. Saab from the Brookings claims vehemently, as to why and how US sees Lebanon as a potential model for democracy (Saab, 2010).

PEOPLE ON THE STREETS
In the most recent elections, the good performance of Hezbollah was a major point of discourse. But, there were more important observations to be made. Tamara  While Lebanese government seeks a bail out from the IMF; both IMF (Al-Monitor, 2020) and friendly countries (Farhat, 2019) demand widespread reforms, that seem hard to come by. For one, vested interests would prove serious obstacles to any reform actions. Second, austerity measures by government will take a heavy toll on an already ailing population (Hamdan, 2020). Though there are elements of sectarian affiliation present in these protests, even Hezbollah has not shied away in accepting that the country is in dire crisis and needs reforms. Speaking of tackling corruption as Lebanon's priority (Azar, 2019), and even partially agreeing to IMF help, albeit conditionally (talib, 2019), Hezbollah and its support base does not contend the issues at hand. As Nasrallah derided the idea of another change in the government, he did not back off from the idea of putting the house in order, Let this government continue but with a new spirit and new way of working and let it learn its lessons from the last two days of popular outburst. (Al-Nahar, 2019) As a deadly explosion rocked Beirut in August 2020, killing at least 100 and injuring another 4000, some called it the Chernobyl moment of Lebanon (Hashem, 2020). It summarized everything that was wrong with Lebanonsecurity crisis, private interest, contending political actors, foreign influence and a dying economy. Still, we see people hoping and fighting for change; for a future where they are free from hunger and despair. In the present deadlock the keys to the solution seem hard to find, but by and large, people know where to find them -In an inclusive and vibrant democracy.

CONCLUSION
As has been explained in fair detail, Lebanese democracy cannot be measured only in numbers. The implications it has, in terms of the region, and the world, are far greater than a mere head count. As such, a study of Lebanon and its polity; both past and future, is a study in human organizational potential. It is a study for the test of democracy in itself. The question we are dealing with is -What challenges have been and are still faced by a multi-sectarian Lebanon in its full transition towards a democracy. And, what prospects lie ahead of it as an inclusive democratic country. In this study, I have, though very briefly, made an attempt at deciphering the multiple trends and shades of Lebanese history and culture, its politics and thought; as to how they shape what Lebanon is today and how they will construct what Lebanon would be tomorrow.
To summarize what has been said, Riad al-Khouri, elegantly points out the present and future of Lebanese democracy. While he rightly argues that Lebanon is a quasi-democracy; with some features being democratic, while some others not so, he also advocates creative measures like a non-confessional house of representative, while retaining the confessional senate, decentralization etc. to further the democratic process (al- Khouri, 2006) As of now, while we have seen the fallouts of the Arab Spring, the future of Lebanon looks potentially both dark and bright (I prefer to believe the latter) -Since on one side, there is a looming economic collapse; with one after another government failing to fulfil the demands on the street. While the popular protests have set in motion a transition of sorts, the way out seems to be blocked, with International agencies not willing to bail out Lebanon, without reformative action; action that would require political unity, tough 87 decision making, and some more hardships (at least for a while) -all of the three seem least coming. As such, Lebanon seems to be on the edge of a precipice; the ultimate epitome of which was the signing of petitions in Lebanon; calling for a French mandate (Pollet, 2020). But, having said that, I also assert, that Lebanon has a tremendous economic and political potential -Times may be hard, but they are only the labour pangs of a new Lebanese polity. The strength of Lebanon does not lie in its political oligarchy, but the people of the countryespecially the educated youth bulge: with a median age of 29.6 and literacy above 95 (Human Development Reports -Lebanon, 2020); which will eventually force the political elite to bow for their own survival, setting forth the dawn of a new Lebanon.